Damn. That was a relentless trend day down yesterday. I'm only now checking my charts and just checked the market briefly on my cell-phone yesterday. 148.00 points from top to bottom and only very shallow counter moves all < 20 points. I was planning to post this after my prior chart Thursday evening, but the thread got sidetracked, so I dropped it. I was thinking we could trade as high as 4250 before rolling over, but the drop came sooner. Should be some interesting weeks ahead. Personally, I hope the volatility doesn't spike all too much as I prefer medium paced volatility over crazy volatility for day trading. In terms of the VIX, we still have a way to go before we're at January/February levels, but that could change quickly.
Continuation of the downtrend to close August in the red, is more likely IMO. Doesn’t feel like a fake move considering when and why it happened. I think the bigger question now is whether we get a monthly higher low, DB or a breakdown. Even though the US appears to be self-sustainable, if globalisation is unwinding, then this would have to be priced in and how do you price such a massive change without having some proper max pain? Interesting times, that’s for sure.
A line is worth a 1000 words (or rationalizations). When I started trading long time ago, I was always intrigued by the media coverage that showed reasons for everything that happened in the market. All these analysts and pundits knew exactly why it went up, went down, went sideway IN HINDSIGHT. But they were powerless to tell you what will happen IN THE FUTURE. Simply put, they were useless idiots. Hence my realization that everything is already reflected in the price. Nothing else matters.
I agree, but for every line drawn there could be another line drawn. It’s like time frames, there could be a bullish signal on 60 minute and bearish on 120 minute, which one would have the backing of prevailing sentiment?
Easy. You stay within each timeframe. If most of them point in the same direction then you get more confluence. Nothing more nothing less. EDIT: Lines arent subjective. If you think they are youve yet to learn how to draw them.
Referencing multiple time frames has become a staple for me. Earlier B1S2 mentioned the weekly as HIS guide. This is a REFERENCE chart I use. It deals with NPOC (Naked Point of Control) on 3 time frames. The chart itself is the 30 minute ES. Pink labels are NPOCs (bar-by-bar)... Blue labels are Daily NPOCs. Green labels are Weekly NPOCs Only NPOCs are labeled on all 3 time frames Having this as a reference, puts a different spin on the expected range of movement on a faster trading time frame. Notice the price ranges within clusters. Notice the price ranges with sparse NPOCs. Notice where NPOCs from different time frames line up. Zoom into a specific day or even a specific bar to see a price/volume distribution. I use a 3 minute chart for my daily trading.