Bah. Time for a loon break. I love loons. We all must learn to love the loon. (When I had my vaca in Maine earlier this year in June, I heard a few while falling asleep. Dude, these birds will make you fall asleep so fast. It is SOOOO relaxing to hear while falling asleep on the Maine coast!)
Technicals reflect fundamentals, news and sentiment. Sentiment is the most important factor. Sentiment is set by fear and greed. By far, fear and greed are what drive the market.
On this we can agree...But I think it needs an adjunct...Technicals reflect fundamentals, but not sentiment. Technicals are the result of the fundamentals. Remember...simple indicators like DTs and DBs cannot form without the fear and greed that cause those DB and DT to form. If everyone is fearful that a DT is going to form at 4000 on the ES, then they will probably find a a way to make it happen. Self-fulfilling prophecy, as it were. Now if the technicals like DTs form because the fear, greed whatever makes it so, a sentiment forms about that level, and just reinforces the technical level. So what really caused the level to form? The emotion, or the fundies?
Trading is slightly more complicated than that....to make a rather definite, sweeping, broad statement. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed If the Fear and Greed Index is higher today than yesterday....Bet Up. If the Fear and Greed Index is lower today than yesterday....Bet Down. Do That, and you will become an instant Millionaire in the market. Good Luck with that Master plan,
So trading is as complicated as your CNN fear index, with the little tachometer dial thingy? That is as complex as your analysis goes? ROFFLE. Man, you need loons. Scroll up two posts and you will find them.
I didn't mean to, because I disagree with you on a very technical niggle in our discussion. But it is my bedtime, so we must continue later. Buggah! About what drives what. Does sentiment drive technicals, does FA drive sentiment, which drives TA, what drives what, etc. Fun discussion, we'll come back to it! Niters!
I agree that sentiment is most important factor in trading. Who cares what your FA or TA determine if price keeps pushing in the opposite direction of your expectations. Analysis could be correct, but could be wrongly timed. Happens to all of us, hence ‘early’ entries and exits are common. Even pros can’t ‘read’/time/analyse sentiment correctly each and every time.
Excellent suggestion. This guy sounds like he really knows his stuff. Its shocking to learn how fucked China is.