ES Journal - 2021/2022

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 15, 2020.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    So if your chart never lies, what does it tell you about tomorrow? It has a 50/50 chance of being correct, by the way, going into a print like this. If a chart never lies, there should be none of "Well, if it does this, then this, But if it does this, then that."
     
    #6731     Aug 4, 2022
  2. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Top has been carving itself out.
     
    #6732     Aug 4, 2022
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    Oh Lord. Will you stop with your big hair?
     
    #6733     Aug 4, 2022
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  4. If a 50 % win rate is the best you can do, you can still make good money as long as your R/R is at least 2:1. You can go short here (4160) with a 15 point stop targeting 4100 as a minimum. That's a 4:1 R/R. If you can consistently hit 4:1 winners you can make good money with a win rate as low as 40 %.

    I don't think the odds are 50/50, though. But I can't know that as I don't have data to support that. Intraday, I have data which lets me gauge these probabilities. Usually, they're not 50/50. :)
     
    #6734     Aug 5, 2022
    Relentless likes this.
  5. Almost got your 60 points there, @Overnight. 3.75 points shy. :)

    Still working this channel:

    upload_2022-8-5_15-52-1.png

    upload_2022-8-5_15-53-17.png
     
    #6735     Aug 5, 2022
  6. For today's RTH session, my expectation is that the market will try to trade back into yesterday's range. So, either a rejection at 4130/4136 or a full gap fill above 4150.

    PS: I didn't yet check what the actual number was. Don't really want to know either.
     
    #6736     Aug 5, 2022
  7. If 50/55 is cleared efficiently, I see Outside Day potential today. Maybe 4180. Maybe.
     
    #6737     Aug 5, 2022
    Builder17 likes this.
  8. Filled the gap from yesterday to the tick. Who said the market wasn't technical and/or unpredictable? :)

    With that level filled the rest of the day is more uncertain, but my view is that we'll print an Outside Day today with at least a 65 print, but probably exceeding that.
     
    #6738     Aug 5, 2022
  9. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Top continues it's carve-out here. Ensuing Times-Square ball drop to be seen soon.
     
    #6739     Aug 5, 2022
  10. When are you contemplating selling?
     
    #6740     Aug 5, 2022