All good charts LF! I was following this blue channel, and saw it broke out decisively. That's the problem with channels, rarely do they offer opportunities over and over again. I tried a short around 4000, and was in profit for a while, but I am still holding, and prepared to scale in. I used this chart in a different thread about gaps. I know you watch them like a hawk as well. Most of these here have filled, but there is clearly the one at 4250 that has yet to fill, and this would also allow for price to turn at some of the swing highs you point out. But there are now multiple gaps lower down. Doesn't mean we have to fill them, or maybe we don't even fill them for a month, but after studying these gaps, I'd say 95% of them eventually fill, even if it means going hundreds of points the other way first. I'm also putting in a bit of fundamental analysis, and it does seem like the market is screaming higher because they think the FED is done raising rates and will have to pivot, but what I'm reading is that in the past few days, some FED officials are trying to signal that they are prepared to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down. As the saying goes, don't fight the FED, and I think their only option now is to destroy assets prices. And although they say they want a soft landing, they will go into a recession, just change the name, but they can't let prices get out of control. So I think once the market understands this, we will for sure revisit the lows, and especially to fill in some of those gaps.
Those gaps will most likely eventually fill, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. If you're short from 4000 you need a large move just to breakeven. If you were in profit at one point - why didn't you exit B/E? I don't have a clue about the FED. I just follow the market and price action. Looking at your chart, I think we have what Jack Hershey would call a failure to traverse (FTT) on that last move to the right hand line of that channel you drew in. When price failed to traverse that channel, I would at least taken an exit if we broke above the prior swing high. Failures are signals, too. FBOs are golden. I would probably also discared that wick on drawing the channel, but these geometrical representations do have some subjectivity...
I was greedy and wanted a bit more profit! LOL... Its a very small position on an ETF that tracks the ES, so I don't mind holding for weeks, and can easily scale-in heavily to bring the average price much higher.
4200 today if 4150 holds. My main expectation is that it will. Breaking the LOD at 4146 unlocks lower levels for the day and rest of the week, IMO.
FBO on that first attempt of the LOD. Let's see if that reverses this or if we get legs to the downside... 4140 could also reverse this if we get there.
I definitely see that bigger move to the down coming, but my main view is it won't start until early next week or so with some more upside left first. I may very well be wrong.
Gaps...Can they be magnets? Yes. Can they act as a distraction while market rips the other way? also yes. So, Do Gaps actually matter if price can run so far away from them? I would argue no. Or at the very least, it would be difficult to place a directional importance on them.
See double top, trade double top. Yes, can wait for confirmation, I don't, I prefer to reduce risk as much as possible by entering a short as close to resistance as I manage to do. Waiting for confirmation IMO gives you a false sense of security due to price oscillation, it can still bounce back or even reverse. Anyway, SPX, TRAN, WLSH, and INDU at or close to resistance so I continue to hold ES short.