This was tough day for me. Eventually identified that shorts were trapped and switched long, turned my day around and ended in green, but took me longer than normal to see that.
Bingo… great sell set up on the 5min … double OVB sell bars on the 5m off 30 swing hi! the higher the lift.. the bigger the gift/ smack down!
Seriously dude, you use OBV. That's freaking awesome. It's not my main indicator, but I use it as well. Funny hearing you mention it, because I haven't ran into too many people that use it, but it's extremely simple and effective if you understand how to use it.
The ES/NQ/RTY Daily closes while not great, we're not terrible either. We did close above Daily support on all of them, plus with the BTC rally I am not really overly bearish here. I checked though and there is no strong probability or stats I have due to the close in these scenarios(for either way). So, will go into next week neutral, just like last week will need to see Sunday night and Monday morning action to get a better read / see if I can find some probabilities or stats.
That's kinda where I am on this -- and also viewing crypto as a "risk-on" indicator. I can't rule out that this is a wave "B" up and we still have a "C" decline before we go substantially higher but right now I'm not expecting February to close lower than January.
Higher or lower next week? I don't hold a strong opinion. We can be reversing or basing out before the next leg higher. Open gaps in purple on SPX. What I do know, though, is that there are very high odds we'll either trade above 4600 or below 4400 on ES.
We've already had the confirmed H and S on the daily and the expected measured move that was discussed. I believe the wide H and S that you are talking of building out would be more of an item on the weekly chart which would indeed make the measured move much larger. However, any H and S on the weekly is miles away.