ES Journal - 2021/2022

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 15, 2020.

  1. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Market weakness can easily be seen in this hourly chart of SP before we had the drop.
    upload_2022-1-8_10-41-34.png
     
    #3621     Jan 8, 2022
    NumberZ likes this.
  2. NumberZ

    NumberZ

    Bollinger bands, @Buy1Sell2?
     
    #3622     Jan 8, 2022
  3. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Yes--they are very important in my view.
     
    #3623     Jan 8, 2022
    Jaydom and NumberZ like this.
  4. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Here's an hourly chart of SP from last January right before a drop of 160 pts
    upload_2022-1-8_10-48-49.png
     
    #3624     Jan 8, 2022
    NumberZ likes this.
  5. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Here's an hourly chart of SP just before the big drop in Feb 2020 .
    upload_2022-1-8_10-51-8.png
     
    #3625     Jan 8, 2022
    NumberZ likes this.
  6. NumberZ

    NumberZ

    Thank you! I'm trying to learn as much as I can.
     
    #3626     Jan 8, 2022
    vanzandt and Buy1Sell2 like this.
  7. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Current weekly chart of SP
    upload_2022-1-8_11-26-45.png
     
    #3627     Jan 8, 2022
    NumberZ likes this.
  8. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    While it's certainly possible that the market could bounce from here and make new highs, I just can't get long when the weekly chart looks as it does right now. We haven't had price touch the bottom weekly Bollinger Band now since March of 2020 and it would be high time to do so.
     
    #3628     Jan 8, 2022
    NumberZ likes this.
  9. NumberZ

    NumberZ

    Reminds me of Gambler's Fallacy and Monte Carlo Casino: "Perhaps the most famous example of the gambler's fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence: the probability of a sequence of either red or black occurring 26 times in a row is (18/37)26-1 or around 1 in 66.6 million, assuming the mechanism is unbiased. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red." - I quote from Wikipedia

    It remind me of Monte Carlo Casino because because market has been hitting the "black" so long. Many people have shorting because it is "due to hit red."

    Also reminds me of saying "market can stay insane longer than you can keep money in your account." I know that not the quote but something like it.

    Better to trade what price is doing. Than what bollinger band is doing. No? I agree with you @Buy1Sell2. Market now weak and going down. But if Monday it goes up. I give up and join up. With bulls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
     
    #3629     Jan 8, 2022
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    Not agreeing or disagreeing with the thesis, but when I see terms like "high time to do so",
    I think about all the babies that have been conceived based on the words "trust me".
     
    #3630     Jan 8, 2022