Log off, 84 points today and I like to keep it, unlike last three days. Goldman forecasts SPX 2022 year end target is 4900, about 5-6% from where we are now. How not to loss money with this target for long trades.
After that sharp October rally that ended on Monday, it is hard to fathom a Santa rally of 5% from here. But stranger things have happened!
I’ve seen at least 200 “ this is the top” calls on here the last yr . The long side is the only way to trade wether it’s a bull or bear mkt . I cringe to think how much bears have lost the last 18 months trying to pick tops . Valuations and crazy prices can’t be rationally explained . But we must except it’s reality . How can nvda be worth 100 times earnings and 30 times sales with a $730 bil cap . That’s worth 7 times their entire mkt . They can never grow into their valuation . Last time I thought that was 1999 with Cisco . I think what all miscalculated was the 20 mil new young investors who stormed the mkt the last 2 yrs .Nobody could have imagined the power they’d have.
Weekly bias is now down. I'm playing both sides intraday but leaning more to the short side. Longer term I am biased down.
When I see a weekly bar, like last week,close outside the top of the Bollinger Bands, I begin to become wary of the long side and look for prices to decline at least short term-----and many times, long term.
The 20 week SMA there in the mid 4400's is certainly in play right now.---We're in the 4650's right now.