ES is only an infrequent trading vehicle for me. But since the current discussion involves multi time frame, here is ES daily and weekly. The weekly hasn't even put together 2 consecutive down closings since the initial "breach". IOW, things may not be as weak as perceived. Just saying. Gotta first get past 4220 to even think about a bigger enchilada. Either way... Más volatilidad por favor!!
Strange feeling pessimistic yet thinking bullishness. The employment report was disappointingly weak, but available trucking trucking freight is blowing past all time records in spite of substantial capacity being added since the beginning of 2021. For example, at the end of last quarter, there were about 80,000 loads on a typical end-of-quarter push on a prominent electronic load board I have regular access to. On Friday, it exceeded 100,000 loads. Seasonally, load availability tends to peak in May or June, before the automakers shut down for annual retooling for the next model year. God help our supply chain if we get a major polar vortex this year, causing diesel gelling problems. Although with corn prices as high as they are, biodiesel blends should be less aggressive, so fuel gelling problems should be less than otherwise. The last major fuel gelling event resulted in a six month or so trucking freight backlog. Further, I understand there are bottlenecks in unloading container ships, suggesting it will be a long time before our supply chain unkinks itself. Even further still, vaccine mandates are not popular with truckers and many are near or even beyond traditional retirement age. Thursday and Friday ranges were tight with lower volume, suggesting consolidation prior to a continuation move up. Still, I am not confident in my read of the DOM, probably as a result of my feeling of pessimism. This pessimism is based on disappointing performance of some key Dow stocks and uncertainty over our political leadership. If ES can sustain prices above last week’s close, I will likely feel more optimistic about the market’s short to medium term prospects.
Speaking of months, it has been a while since we touched the 12 month moving average, although we are certainly not near any sort of record now. If the Fed loses credibility, perhaps as a result of intractable inflation or a bad replacement for Powell, I would expect some seriously wild times in the market. I suppose a reasonable course of action would be to focus on buy signals as long as the month is green and we take out last week’s high.
Indeed. I reckon' the bank earnings starting next week could be a leading indicator? It's going to be a rough road. I smell VIX heading above 20 again. Sux for me. FUCK I hate going long at ATH, lol.
Bank earnings are like unemployment data. It doesn't matter. The market is gonna do what the market is gonna do. Is there anyone else out there besides me that laughs at the CNBC/Bloomberg sensationalism attached to these events? I mean even the Fed.... albeit that one can matter.... but our markets have evolved into some kind of social media barometer.. Wrong, but right. 1) you can score big quickly if you have the intuition to game what will be the overall market reaction to near term emotion, but requisite to that is an understanding of how the real brokers of monetary power will play these things near term to f all ya'll. And 2) You have to open your eyes to the world around you. In a myriad of ways. That one one takes a degree of sense that I have found, to my (ongoing) astonishment, is severely lacking in the world that the resides the analysts and PM's. On both sides. I'm talking easy stuff. Peter Lynch, but on a grander scale. I guess it all comes down to what one's eyes see, what one's eyes read, what one's ears are told, and what one's ears actually hear. Chew on that. Market poetry at its finest. So.... Sell the rip over night tonight btw... Had I got back before 6PM EST I would have posted that earlier. It's probably not too late. The general direction near term will be down with lots of chop in between.
I agree with this assessment. Even the bullish of the bullshit analysts out there are calling for the final bottom to be around Halloween.
btw.... my remark in that other thread was not saying "who gives af" about your mom.... It was about how you acquired the car. I apologize because I think that post read wrong.
No worries mate. We've had spats before, you and I. And I am sure this one will not be the last. It's just how it goes on forums. All good.