I'm expecting a move towards 3700 sooner than later. But just don't have the confidence to short ES on a day trade today. That may be a mistake. Flat and watching. Stalking long entries...
Outside Day is possible here. Waiting to see what happens around 3718/20. Only down 0,55 % at this point, so nothing dramatic yet. Given that - I'd say we can easily sell well below 3720 today, so may not be too late to join the short side.
3709 next level of interest below 3220. If not - next open gap is 3695,25. If I like the PA - I'm shorting around 3220, but primarily still chasing a long for a bounce in that area.
Not a buyer in sight... I'm sad to say I missed the short side completely this morning, but that's the honest truth. I knew a move to the low 3700 was coming sooner or later, but I had not anticipated that it would play out like this, obviously. I think 3695/3700 should cap it for today and offer a sizeable bounce. Unless this is the start of a larger correction...
Relentless selling. Reminds me of one of those n <10 kind of days during March 2020. Or maybe the one I have in mind was in August/September.
Two main scenarios for the rest of the day, IMO: a. LOD in already and forming a base/DB here for a move towards 15-30. b. Continued selling with a close near the LOD and no counter rally, i.e., a trend day down. Only down 1,56 % so far today, so if it's one of those days, we'll easily see more down side still. No strong edge either way today, but there's a slight bias to scenario a from my point of view.
Given today's session - I think it's quite likely we'll see a dip below 3650 tomorrow before a reversal higher on the day (Tuesday). I'll buy a gap down open or a hold above 3652 on the Open.