ES Journal - 2021/2022

Damn I forgot about that. Why's the PCE announced so often?

At any rate,
the previous PCE is 0.7%
and the consensus is 0.3%
but we already know that consumers overspent on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to the following headlines alone. So you really think PCE will get revised down? Something to ponder over the next 14 hours.


CNBC
Black Friday online sales top $9 billion in new record
PUBLISHED SAT, NOV 26 202210:45 AM EST
UPDATED MON, NOV 28 20222:05 PM EST

• Consumers spent a record $9.12 billion online shopping during Black Friday this year, according to Adobe.
• Overall online sales for Black Friday were up 2.3% year-over-year.
• Buy Now Pay Later payments increased by 78% compared with the past week, beginning Nov. 19, as consumers continue to grapple with high prices and inflation.

TechCrunch
Cyber Monday online sales hit a record $11.3B, driven by demand, not just inflation, says Adobe

As we reported, Thanksgiving saw $5.29 billion in sales and Black Friday had $9.12 billion in sales — both also up on earlier forecasts. The weekend between had $9.55 billion in sales. Altogether, “Cyber Week” — the period including those holidays and the days back at work as people continue to shop online — will reach $35.27 billion in sales online, up 4% over last year and accounting for 16.7% of all sales in the months of November and December.

 

It is a monthly read, like CPI and retail data. *shrugs*

 

Unless you're an ass (not you, of course), the number will likely come in higher than the consensus and the market will tank. Well, unless that has already been factored into today's selloff. Kinda no brainer, isn't it?

 

PCE Core, in particular, is what Powell watches.

 

You asked why the PCE is "reported so often". I answered to the best of my abilities. Go Chiefs!

 

And that is what it is. CORE. It is a monthly data point.



Any other questions?

 

Like my chart pic shows - which is the MRO 4.98% annual.

You don't need to splain to me.

 

Another bone of contention: Why would Powell focus on CORE, which excludes food and energy? Also below states that the "annual" rate is the preferred reading. Makes no sense.

Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, went up by 0.2% month-over-month in October of 2022, below 0.5% in September and less than market forecasts of 0.3%. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, fell to 5% from 5.2%.

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Welp, guess "they" don't like it.

 

For a few mins anyway