Historically, yesterday's play sets up continuation higher if yesterday's high holds. If not, yesterday's rally can easily reverse and head (way) lower. So, that's what I will be paying attention to. Since it's a holiday week among other factors I'm leaning long, but I won't marry that view. I'm fairly sure we had a solid down day this time of the year last year.
I have a long breakeven entry from 11.50. I'm wondering if it's safe to hold through the jobless claims coming up. A bit scared after those prior CPI releases, but those jobless claims seems to be less dramatic recently.
Well if we see an up spike just before the announcement i will probably look at closing my long. Those early spikes up seem to pump the market before a big drop. I will close my long at break even if it starts to drop and reopen at a lower price if the reverse happens.
So I cant tell if now is the drop ready for a big push higher, or if yesterday/last night was the pump ready for a big drop today.
Crude (CL) is the market to watch. Its in backwardation saying a recession is out there. Often leads indices. Dropped bigly on Monday only to recover unchanged. Tuesday narrow range up slightly. Dropping big again today.
Hard to tell. My historical DB says a (big) drop is perfectly possible, but there's a bias towards the long side. Just going to wait and see now. 4K for a long seems like a bargain for me, but not going to pick a falling knife if that's the outcome.
Not quite the volatility I was expecting. The price has hardly moved at all. I was expecting an upwards move off the back off those jobless claims.