Have you seen my journal lately? I took some risk on MNQ in August in a swing, and am going to be closing the trade at a loss in a month from now. So no, not everyone gets rewarded for taking on risk.
Not for swing trading. My edge was time. It worked until the beginning of this year, when the Fed dropped the banhammer.
I'm 50 50 about the direction right now so staying out. Closed all shorts yesterday after giving back a tiny amount of profit.
If one looks at INDU, then it is apparent that Xmas rally is upon us. SPX and NDX do have some junk within them, so would take longer, they aren't leading the way, they are lagging behind. Look at WTIC, it is now in a confirmed reversal and this is a major boost to the economy. Our main issue is Black Swan events, potentially there are a few on the horizon, hence the volatility. VIX is also continuing to fall, which is cool for risk on.
If that was (always) true there wouldn't be any risk would there? Trading the financial markets is by definition risky. Many have learned that for the first time this year... Maybe, but keep in mind that seasonality is actually bearish in bear markets.