Please take a look at this 1M bar at 9 AM. If you had your stop below LoD of 51, you would have been stopped out of long MES, but not ES. Low of this bar in MES was 48 while 51.50 in ES, just two ticks above LoD. Is stop hunting more prevalent in MES? Any thoughts?
I am no expert, but if the MES is less liquid then it could be more likely to happen with the MES right?
Not 9am on my chart. It helps to know what time-zone you are in when discussing with folks in multiple different time-zones. Anyway my stops reside on my pc ready to be sent when appropriate so I wouldn't know specifically. I never leave the screen when in a trade. Although minis and micros do vary considerably on OHLC I've never eyeballed them over the course of the trading day. TradeStation forum prolly has a snippet of code that scans for the variance. Maybe I'll see over the weekend if I can come across it and posts results if I do.
Now I see what you are talking about, 9am Chicago time. I'm somewhat surprised, in this case, ES did not also go a tick or two below LOD and grab some stops. Both RTY/M2K and NQ/MNQ pairs stayed well above their respective LOD's as well. So maybe it was stops running, or maybe MES overshoots a lot with so much volume and volatility??
There were monster moves the last 2 days in broken hated naz stks . Now shorts must contend with is the bottom in and will money pile in . So if the bottom is truly in it means we hardly gave back 1 year (2022) of a 13 yr Bull . It seems almost comical to think the bottoms in with all thats happened . I can make a strong case with rates up 13 fold off the lows and earnings falling we have the most expensive mkt ever . But the mkt speaks the truth .
I'm with you on the analysis part, but I wouldn't say the market speaks the truth. I would just say that the price reflects the opinion of the biggest players for that day. No need to step in front of a steam roller if you're bearish. Just wait for it to pass and then short. I bet everyone is waiting for a better entry to short. The bulls were looking for any glimmer of hope and then someone opened the barn doors and they all came out running. Who is gonna step in front of that???
Which is exactly while we'll likely continue higher (apart from several other reasons.) While they sit twiddling their thumbs - markets will just march higher.
Yes, but at some point, when the longs are starting to feel invincible, the rug will be pulled to. The only question is will it lead to a lower low or not. Clearly shorting once the lows from October break will be a bad entry. The time to short is during this rally, and especially at the top if you can time it. Looking at the weekly chart, is this bearish or bullish? We of course won't know until much later, but we still have lots of up action possible and can still put in a lower high which leaves the bearish case intact.
Im not really looking for "off to the races". More or a less a move back towards ATH and then a lot of range action for what could be as long as a decade as we wobble around in stagflation. There will be big moves in both directions. Right now im eyeing ATH.