ES Journal - 2019/2020

Excluding commissions, 3 x 10 points and a 30 point stop is the same if you're trading the exact same # of contracts. Sure.

But when you say you're adding at subsequently higher levels AND went in with 10X size at your initial stop 40 points lower than we're at now it does not seem like the risk is the same. In fact - it seems like you're taking on a huge risk. Particularly if the options were not a hedge.

I think that is a big mistake.

While you can have a trade idea or a main hypothesis, you should always see the alternative scenario. A trade can have a 90% probability of success, but a 100% probability of success is rare.

Either way - good luck.

 

--stopped overnight for a gain of 2 pts--

 

100%

 

Out at 2892.50 for loss of 127.25 pts. (Net win on position short was 69.75 pts)

 

As long as we hold above 90 - I think there's a good chance we'll print 2910 + today. Maybe 2913.

 

FOMC to cut rates soon, more free money coming. Chance of a prolonged downtrend is looking pretty slim.

 

97.71 so far has the most likely ceiling formation since open. could be good for range.

 

if closes below 95.25 convincingly i am starting short position.

 

i think 2917 before any serious down move is to happen

 

bears dont have momentum. looks like it will go higher than 97.75.
95.25 bulls are not letting go. cant close a complete candle below 95.25 on my chart.