ES Journal - 2019/2020

volente_00 · May 13, 2019

Seaweed said:
Hey @destriero , I don't doubt your screenshots as they look pretty legit. I have an IB account as well, and as you said, a pic of the screen is much better than a screenshot from a computer since you can easily edit that.

But there has been no mention of your call to buy all you can at 60.25 was it? I mean both you and NQ got into longs, and no updates. He had some 20 point stop on multiple contracts, so that was hit, but you just posted an amazing blotter for today. I don't understand your complex option trades, or how you managed the trade or even took it, but that call was obviously wrong, correct?
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Do you even hedge Bro ?

vanzandt · May 13, 2019

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Another metric to consider is how much of JB Hunt’s, Fed Ex’s, or Walmart’s freight is being hauled by a third party. It may not be readily available, but I can see it through the Landstar agents electronc loadboard posts that handle those accounts. Sometimes one may find anecdotal evidence by watching to see if a different company other than FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart are pulling a FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart trailer, respectively. Except, of course, during the crazy Christmas season.

Right now, a significant driver of lower freight rates, lower load to truck ratios, and higher spot market rate to contract rate discounts is increased capacity. Additional capacity is still on it’s way as indicated by new truck order backlogs that are a year long. However, these backlogs will not last long as the cost of these new trucks with their higher operating costs will not be supported by current freight rates.

Trade volume reductions as implied by maritime’s Baltic Dry Index approaching five year lows is another issue facing trucking. In addition, JB Hunt is a heavy intermodel provider with their large fleet of overseas containers. Even railroads may start feeling lower volumes in earnest soon in spite of coordinated efforts to move more freight to the lower cost, environmentally and road traffic friendly rail system.

In my opinion, there is a very narrow window for the US to avoid a recession in the next 6 to 12 months. With no trade deal, we will need big bold moves in infrastructure, voluntary business capital investment, a very accomodative Fed to encourage consumer refinancing and their subsequent spending on goods and services in order to have a chance to stave off a recession. Increasing domestic oil exploration with its positive wide effect on multiple industries would not hurt either. Last I heard, Trump is now planning to visit XI. Hopefully they can work things out before business and consumer confidence unravels with subsequent economic and financial pain following.
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Great post. Good insights.

NQurious · May 13, 2019

Seaweed said:
I mean both you and NQ got into longs, and no updates.
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The good sh!t has been moved to a private thread, invitation only. Will post a screen grab of the pre-open call today once Bob Barr is finished with the redactions.

I wouldn’t trust anything I post here in the open.

volente_00 · May 13, 2019

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Another metric to consider is how much of JB Hunt’s, Fed Ex’s, or Walmart’s freight is being hauled by a third party. It may not be readily available, but I can see it through the Landstar agents electronc loadboard posts that handle those accounts. Sometimes one may find anecdotal evidence by watching to see if a different company other than FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart are pulling a FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart trailer, respectively. Except, of course, during the crazy Christmas season.

Right now, a significant driver of lower freight rates, lower load to truck ratios, and higher spot market rate to contract rate discounts is increased capacity. Additional capacity is still on it’s way as indicated by new truck order backlogs that are a year long. However, these backlogs will not last long as the cost of these new trucks with their higher operating costs will not be supported by current freight rates.

Trade volume reductions as implied by maritime’s Baltic Dry Index approaching five year lows is another issue facing trucking. In addition, JB Hunt is a heavy intermodal provider with their large fleet of overseas containers. Even railroads may start feeling lower volumes in earnest soon in spite of coordinated efforts to move more freight to the lower cost, environmentally and road traffic friendly rail system.

In my opinion, there is a very narrow window for the US to avoid a recession in the next 6 to 12 months. With no trade deal, we will need big bold moves in infrastructure, voluntary business capital investment, a very accomodative Fed to encourage consumer refinancing and their subsequent spending on goods and services in order to have a chance to stave off a recession. Increasing domestic oil exploration with its positive wide effect on multiple industries would not hurt either. Last I heard, Trump is now planning to visit XI. Hopefully they can work things out before business and consumer confidence unravels with subsequent economic and financial pain following.

Edited for spelling.
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Every republican president has a recession in their term. You can't run from the enevitable.

vanzandt · May 13, 2019

destriero said:
Intermodal. Bro, bad grammar kills.
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Shouldn't that read "bad spelling"? Not "bad grammar". There is a difference.
....just sayin.

destriero · May 13, 2019

vanzandt said:
Shouldn't that read "bad spelling"? Not "bad grammar". There is a difference.
....just sayin.
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Spelling is a subset of grammar. Equally apropos.

vanzandt · May 13, 2019

destriero said:
Spelling is a subset of grammar. Equally apropos.
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Oh. ok

Seaweed · May 13, 2019

destriero said:
I was trolling. Yes, I went long at 60.25 but covered at 65, 68. I also went short at 58.
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Your journaling is almost approaching the transparency of B1S2... Lol.... But I appreciate the update.

RRY16 · May 13, 2019

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Another metric to consider is how much of JB Hunt’s, Fed Ex’s, or Walmart’s freight is being hauled by a third party. It may not be readily available, but I can see it through the Landstar agents electronc loadboard posts that handle those accounts. Sometimes one may find anecdotal evidence by watching to see if a different company other than FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart are pulling a FedEx, JB Hunt, or Walmart trailer, respectively. Except, of course, during the crazy Christmas season.

Right now, a significant driver of lower freight rates, lower load to truck ratios, and higher spot market rate to contract rate discounts is increased capacity. Additional capacity is still on it’s way as indicated by new truck order backlogs that are a year long. However, these backlogs will not last long as the cost of these new trucks with their higher operating costs will not be supported by current freight rates.

Trade volume reductions as implied by maritime’s Baltic Dry Index approaching five year lows is another issue facing trucking. In addition, JB Hunt is a heavy intermodal provider with their large fleet of overseas containers. Even railroads may start feeling lower volumes in earnest soon in spite of coordinated efforts to move more freight to the lower cost, environmentally and road traffic friendly rail system.

In my opinion, there is a very narrow window for the US to avoid a recession in the next 6 to 12 months. With no trade deal, we will need big bold moves in infrastructure, voluntary business capital investment, a very accomodative Fed to encourage consumer refinancing and their subsequent spending on goods and services in order to have a chance to stave off a recession. Increasing domestic oil exploration with its positive wide effect on multiple industries would not hurt either. Last I heard, Trump is now planning to visit XI. Hopefully they can work things out before business and consumer confidence unravels with subsequent economic and financial pain following.

Edited for spelling.
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Vanzandt gets the inside skinny from an ex trucker friend out of El Paso via Starbucks.

Seaweed · May 13, 2019

NQurious said:
The good sh!t has been moved to a private thread, invitation only. Will post a screen grab of the pre-open call today once Bob Barr is finished with the redactions.

I wouldn’t trust anything I post here in the open.
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Who's in the cool club???