Or .... or ... maybe ... this is leg 2 of a pullback from Friday's 2914.75: pullback to 2902.50, rally to 2913.50, now pullback to test Friday's RTH low, maybe even that big fat 2900. Maybe ... but at least consider the possibilities. Since the HWB didn't hold, I'd expect a test of Friday's low.
Should be a bunch of early longs with their stop loss at 2906 so that should be a given that this isn't THE low .... tough sometimes the market gods give retail a win to keep them in the game (for sport, you know). If I were a bear, and the market can't even get enough short term weakness to test that 2900 during RTH, I'd be re-thinking my bearish position.
My guess is that the NQ bottom is in and the ES may be in, though it looks like it could be open to a 2900-2900.25 trade between now and 11:30 Eastern. Two sets of retail longs in there now but no signs of The Money as yet, imo. Retail longs mean stops at 2900.25 for most of them, so there is that ... I had limit buy at 2900.50 with no fills at all. Not even one lousy emini for me lol.
My best guess is we swing up to at least 08. What happens there should determine if we make another push down for the gap fill below or if we go back up all the way to 2912.