I've been through many of your journals and I've looked at your charts and I know that a big part of your system is Bollinger bands. With all do respect, I do not believe your application here does them justice, to be honest. Bollinger bands provide a relative definition (relative to a defined mean) as to whether price is high or low ... relative to that mean. That relative definition can be used to compare price action and indicator action to arrive at buy/sell signals. The appropriate indicator action may be derived from momentum indicators, volume information, , sentiment, open interest, intermarket data, etc. In other words, the buy and sell signals must come from something other than Bollinger band information, which only tells you whether the market is high or low, relatively speaking, to a mean defined by the Bollinger bands themselves. Tags of BB's are not in and of themselves buy or sell signals. Closes above the bands on the other hand are continuation signals, not reversal signals. For example, on 3/8 we are told a bear market has begun. On 3/12 the market closed above the upper Bollinger band. This, according to the man who developed Bollinger bands himself was not a Massive outraday sell signal, but a Massive outraday buy continuation signal. The market then continued to close above the upper BB on 4 of the next 7 trading days before pulling back to the level of the mean (actually held slightly above the mean). Yesterday it tagged the upper band. Again, according to the man who developed the indicator "tags of the bands are just that: tags, and are not buy or sell signals in and of themselves." With all due respect, B1, I think you are expecting too much from that one indicator.
Certainly true. I don't have time to get into a lengthy debate about this and maybe I misread, but I read about a 14 year old and an X-Box and making more money than you can imagine from one set-up only and thought it sounded bit too good do be true. Leaving for the weekend. Not Dubai, but somewhere colder. Happy trading all.
Ok then, let's assume that tags are not. Let's look at this: See, a part of you knows what levels are significant. And yet your trading as you present it here does not seem to represent that knowledge. If you know that below 91 the rally is bending or breaking, then why is the objective not to buy close to that level with a stop just below, rather than wing it with short sales willy nilly and hoping for the best? (though in this case I will concede that if I really wanted to be short, your entry price isn't bad).
A move below 2884 is what we need now to get this thing really moving to the downside. We have a market here that is in bear market rally mode and is knocking on the top area. Let's move her down now.