ES Journal - 2019/2020

Buy1Sell2 · Apr 3, 2019

The short signal here continues it's massive bent and is a multi day sig.

SPYgrain · Apr 3, 2019

would you also call it an outra-day signal ?
thanks

SPYgrain · Apr 3, 2019

NQurious said:
I'll answer you, because I actually think you might be sincerely asking. If I'm mistaken, shame on me.

First and foremost ...

I have a plan. I do my very hard to stick to it. I have had moments of hubris where I traded counter to plan and experience and almost every time I was like this at the end of the day:

I know that when the ES is in an uptrend and I am long near the current day's low and it is after 10:30 AM that the most likely event is that the market ends near whatever it's eventual high is. I almost always find myself long within just a few points of the day's low. I am often long from with a few ticks. I have a few times been so lucky as to get a limit filled at the exact low tick of the day. When I am long near the low of the day, and the market is trading at, near, or above its opening range, the odds favored continuation. If you knew how much more those runners have paid me than closing them out would have saved me, you'd not ask the question.

However, you might have asked the question, because your perception of what happened is different from mine:

My reason for getting out of most of my position with +9's instead of holding out for the last two ticks would have been apparent to anyone who trades order flow. I am not going to hold a teachable moment on reading order flow, but I believe I made it obvious from my post where I stated my exit that I did so based on the fact that it was apparent the market was able to pullback. It was not apparent that we'd see anything like the lack of buying we saw in the afternoon.

Read my first paragraph to you above: The most likely event was continuation higher. I'll stand by that all day. The only thing unlikely at that point was that the market was not going higher at that moment. So, my thoughts were why risk a substantial portion of my open trade profits being a stubborn holdout for an extra $25/contract? I like to risk $25 to make $500. I do not like to risk $450 to make $25. Every tick changes the risk:reward calculus a bit.

Now, between 1:00 PM and 1:45 PM it would have became apparent to all but the terminally stupid that the trend was down, and shorting bounces was the order of the day. I did close those runners with some decent profit remaining. I could not report it here as I was truly out on the golf course. For journal integrity purposes, we can just say they were closed at break even.

But the main answer to all your questions is simple: I have a plan based on careful observation over man, many hours and based on detail notes and statistics that tells me when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk away. I am a bit bummed that today of all days I decide to take a mid-week afternoon off to play golf, but it had been planned in advance and it was for a good cause.

PS God loves you, but he does not care one bit about your position in the market. Prayer is not a trading plan.
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Thanks for explanation NQ..it is helpful for those of us in the midst of plan formulation..hope you enjoyed golf!

Buy1Sell2 · Apr 3, 2019

SPYgrain said:
would you also call it an outra-day signal ?
thanks
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yes

Buy1Sell2 · Apr 3, 2019

Day trade today was a gain of 4 pts.

Buy1Sell2 · Apr 3, 2019

ESfocus said:
He had a great exit @ 89, and now down 5 pts (of potential profit) on his 'runners', and counting till the stop.

5+pts loss betting on an 'unlikely' event??

Trying to understand why a 'runner' is reasonable.
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Good posting. --Runners are not reasonable in my view---If it makes sense to take some of the trade off, then it makes sense to remove it all. --I have shown mathematically that scaling out produces less than optimal results over the long haul.

NQurious · Apr 4, 2019

Buy1Sell2 said:
Good posting. --Runners are not reasonable in my view---If it makes sense to take some of the trade off, then it makes sense to remove it all. --I have shown mathematically that scaling out produces less than optimal results over the long haul.
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FALSE!

cowf · Apr 4, 2019

Still long for the morning, still showing possible strong upthrust. Still anticipating 2900

No valid reason to be short here, even though there have been multiple short signals, for top pickers.

2888.00 shows, but does not confirm anything but a higher high. 2870.00 shows, you maybe be long too long, but is holding strong.

If we were to break and stay under 2870.00, then and if only, I would consider midcourse correcting or sit on my hands, till the next valid long entry.

NQurious · Apr 4, 2019

imo, yesterday is an important day. The market has now made a high on 3/4, after which there was a pullback, and then another high on 3/21 without making much more headway and then a pullback that fell below the 3/4 high. We now have yet a third attempt to move the market higher yesterday. If the market pulls back below 3/21's 2866 high and closes below that level, then I think the case might be made for a more significant bear swing than a mere pullback. I do not maintain at this time that the 12/24/2018 lows are at all a target. But at some point, a HWB of this rally or there about should not surprise.

On the other hand, if this market can pull away from the 3/21 high, and hold above 2866 on any pullbacks, then let's face it, we just are so close to the ATH that why not?

mbondy · Apr 4, 2019

Halfway back on this rally would be a gift so I could load up on everything I missed on the way up. But B1's swing stop is just so close, it's begging to be taken out. I'm primed for a trend day UP today or tomorrow and ATH's within a few weeks - we're so close!