A bottom or a consolidation? Internals are firming up a bit here. I think we're due at least a swing to 3650.
Flattened everything @ 48. Off to do something else now. I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see this swing above 3680 today, but I don't have a strong opinion. It's one of those n < 10 kind of days which by definition are a bit unpredictable. Stay safe and happy holidays.
Although I would tend to be bullish around the holidays, the market seems vulnerable with many risk based assets, such as CL, HG, AUD, and CAD, now below their weekly average prices. By this measure, ES is also weak with NQ seemingly not far behind. The new strain of Coronavirus out of the UK, said to be significantly more contagious, represents undefined risk because we do not actually know how the new vaccines will perform. Further, the threat of shutdowns may start to weigh on prospects for 2021. I will be using GBPUSD as a temporary leading or confirming market indicator.
Well, we printed ATHs even prior to a vaccine. What you say makes sense if we are to use common sense. If we are to use common sense, I don't think the markets should be where they are now anyhow. There's a strong seasonality in play here on the last week of the year. While we have had down weeks, I don't think we ever had a strong down week in the last week of the year over the last 15-20 years. Closed down the shop for the day, so can't provide the actual numbers.
When I started out as a trader I used to have a really strong short bias and would very easily short. I've heard other traders starting out having had the same experience. I would also be fearful buying bottoms. These days it's the other way around and I find myself shorting less than I should do. It's been said that the market falls faster than it rises, but damn, there's been some fast and violent rallies these last years too...