Yeah the herd is going to be lost tomorrow. Just running one way one minute, the other way the next. Tonight is a pure algo driven "grab the retail trader's money". Game the stops all night and not go anywhere at all.
Asia is liking something, after some 7 PM ET treble, and had propped the NQ up 70ish points from that timeframe. I have to sit on my hands because I am "stuck in that long". Rules is rules though. *le sigh*
Nice to wake up and see I'm still in the the game. Added one @ 70,75 for an average of 69. Will probably stop out the whole position at 85-90 and re-evaluate. I think we have a swing high here @ 80 and that we'll see another push down here. 3200 or lower is my target.
HOT OFF THE PRESS Speculators Boost Bullish U.S. Stock Bets to Highest Since 2019 By Gregor Stuart Hunter November 2, 2020, 12:38 AM EST Speculative investors increased bullish wagers on U.S. stocks to the highest level in almost two years after a selloff in the S&P 500 index. Net long positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures in the week to Oct. 27 were the most since January 2019, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The more optimistic stance followed a slide in the S&P 500 from its September record on risks such as surging virus cases and stalled U.S. fiscal stimulus talks. The gauge fell again last week, dropping 5.6% ahead of the presidential election Tuesday amid lingering concerns of a drawn-out or contested result. U.S. stock futures fluctuated Monday as investors braced for a volatile week that spans not just the election but also a Federal Reserve policy meeting. Speculators have turned more optimistic after a selloff in U.S. stocks. Some strategists argue the S&P 500 can make a run higher from next year, helped by post-election progress on government aid to combat the pandemic’s economic fallout, as well as the introduction of treatments and vaccines. For instance, BTIG LLC chief equity and derivatives strategist Julian Emanuel wrote in a note that the firm’s base case is “eventual new all-time highs when the correction concludes” possibly in the first quarter of 2021. Technical analysts, meanwhile, are sounding some notes of caution. Strategists Jason Hunter and Alix Tepper Floman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the S&P 500 is revisiting a “cluster of support” surrounding the 3,200 level. Should there be a sustained break below that, it “could accelerate the price weakness and create a more aggressive flight-to-quality flow” that could take the index down to the 2,950-3,050 area, they wrote in a note. The S&P 500 ended at 3,269.96 on Friday, down a little under 9% from its record close on Sept. 2.
Add one more @ 70,25. Average is 69,25. Will probably scale out of that last one a bit above 80 and stop out the rest at 90. Rationale: It's hard to imagine we put in a Low already and won't at least visit last week's low @ 3225 considering what's going on right now. The uncertainty is if we'll make another push higher before that happens. But I'm betting on a swing high being in place here for now.
Beer money at risk here. Putting the stop @ 3305 on all three. This was the run up I imagined could happen, but will honestly say I thought it was not going to at this point in time. I'd be slightly surprised to see us rip higher above 3300 in today's RTH session, but you never know and someone is definitely buying here. EDIT: And stopped. No beer this weekend. I shorted 2 new @ 3304. I'll keep the stop to myself. Last swing entry going into the election. I think we have a chance of seeing a strong move higher this week, but can it be starting already? I don't think so.
We may very well open above 3300, but I'd be surprised if we can sustain a rally above that level and leave Friday behind already today? My guess is that if we do open above 3300 - we'll fairly quickly drop back below. Staying short here. Good luck all.