As stated I don't deal in personal attacks and I don't like when people post charts and/or information after the fact. Did I not just say that? You made the claim" back up the truck" 2 hours and 30 minutes into the session AND you waited for ES to move 18 points up before commenting AND instead of answering to that, you'd rather make a smart ass comment.
I closed down my charts early, but from checking my cell phone it seems like the 'market makers' took a breather for a while and that we dropped about 45 points instead. To be honest - I'm skeptical if there's any edge/precision to be found in speculating about how a dealer/specialist/market maker is positioned or is positioning himself. Even if you could know - isn't it also true that these guys are wrong too? And when they are - surely they'll be hedging their positions and adding more fuel to the fire...?
Yes, I think MMs lose money too... Any trading member can act as a Market Maker for options and benefit from reduced fees. All trading members are automatically checked to evaluate whether they fulfill Market Maker obligations and are able to take part in the Market-Making programs and packages that are offered. Only quotes and mass quotes traded via the M-account are taken into consideration. For selected futures products, so-called "Designated" Market-Making is available. Market Makers take on defined obligations to increase liquidity in their chosen product. Subject to their performance in fulfilling their obligations, members are rewarded with a reduction in their fee levels.
exactly. Market makers also compete against each other. Simply calling out levels that ‘should’ be important means nothing. Where’s your stop, your target, your re-entry, etc? When those calls work, “wow great call!”. When they don’t, there’s silence for hours/days/weeks and no mention of how bad the loss was. It’s typical ET behavior. Anybody can see these levels by looking at a chart. It’s entertaining to read and discuss. But if you’re not providing details, it’s just talk and really doesn’t add anything.
ES will have a much better chance of a rally sustaining coming from 3160-3211 and for NQ from 10780-11048. So, probability is still looking down and likely to be trading in those areas this week. If we don't go there today or overnight, than I will still be leaning more short for intra-day tomorrow. Likely done trading for the day as I see no strong edge here, not going to short this low, but also don't currently have any setups for longs on ES or NQ down here that have any decent probability of working out. So, unless NQ can rally like 70+ points for me to look for a short setup, than I'll just be a watcher.
Days like this I wish I could trade more often outside of 14:00-16:00. Agree with the general sentiment here that the major move is done and there are no major longs to be had (though 2-4 points scalps are available long on the ES). If there's another move down available, I'll take it only starting around the 3293 level and average in from there.
Personally I won't be building into a short, too close to EOD for me. There is a 11215-11235 distribution area on NQ here, in the area now. Took a scalp short, but not confident it holds so I just closed it for very small gain. If there was more time in the session I'd hold, but already 2 pm don't want to get trapped in short cover rally.
Maybe it's just my imagination, but the way price tends to move starting precisely at 14:00 makes me think there are particular programs turned on around that time.