Same thing here that I already spent more than a decade to configure and improve and my trading setups. I agree with you that it's not as simple as taking a visual glance at price action and then making tons of money from there. After spending more than a decade on observing price action, I'm pretty good at figuring out what market is likely going next within that a day or two, but when it comes to trading my setups don't care what I think or my view is because of rules that I've to follow and that I can't be biased. I don't know about others. What I do know is that if one has the right configuration on their chose time frames and have spent enough times (let's say at least a year or two of solid works) to observe their charts, they will see the same thing repeated almost everyday. They will see that it's not random and this is where they should begin to focus on to find ways to capture the profits which I call a setup.
I don't know if I agree or fully understand what you're saying. There are clues left behind in the market by certain subsets of buyers. People that are buying large quantities of a stock or futures generally don't just press buy and sell for their entire order all at once, as they would be competing directly against themselves, they often look to get a net weighted average at general price points over time as they build into their position setting it up. Sure, they aren't always right so the setup could fail, but I wouldn't call it random as once they've committed to a setup there's an expectation of price moving in that direction more often than not.
Setups repeat (not random) - the outcomes of said setups are randomized. I can expect everything in the world, that doesnt mean it will play out that way when crunch time comes. There is no way to tell a particular trade from a repeatable setup will be a winner or a loser. Therefore randomized. What we do know is that if you take the setup over and over again, you will come out a winner more times than not.
Ok, I apologize if my communication and choice of words are lacking. All I am saying is it's possible to determine the direction of the markets during certain setups using clearly defined perimeters in excess of moving in that direction above a 50% probability.
The facts are your setups might eventually be correct more than 50/50. The question to be answered as a trader with stops will you be stopped out before your setup trade is correct more than 50/50?Being right on the big pic at the day is meaningless.
IamTheCasino: it seems you have read very carefully the book Trading in the Zone or the Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas, right? The below is based on the book Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas although not exactly his words. Therefore, the above five truths about the nature of trading can be modified to the following two truths. 1. There is a random distribution of wins and losses for any trade. • Anything can happen • Every moment in the market is unique. 2. An edge is that a series of trades have a positive expectation. • Do not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. To summarize in essence ( although not precise), one style of consistently profitable trading is to toss the same coin over and over again which has a positive expectation.
You registered one year before me - so I'll hardly consider you more of a newbie than me. I created version 1.0 in 2012 and had a professional company design it, but quickly discovered shortcomings and there's been many changes throughout the years. I'm probably at version 1.8 now. I have no ideas how many hours I've sunk into this by now, but I've taken a degree and worked full time in between, so definitely not 10 years of full focus, but periodically very intense and I'm sure I've done my 10.000 hours total and more since I started this endeavor. If I knew how much work it would be to make it as a day trader I would probably have done something else instead. This is why I wouldn't recommend anyone to pursue day trading unless they have a very long time horizon and simply enjoy the puzzle or find enjoyment in it.
The market definitely isn't random. But even still - it's not always easy to monetize that. Even if you have a profitable system or set-ups. I still struggle with things like entering too early (FOMO), risk management or even projecting my own views/wishes on the market. An optimal system removes the discretionary element, i.e., interpretation. If you can't do that - at least try to remove as much discretion as possible. In my opinion of course.
A setup with positive expectancy on equal risk vs reward is an edge. After that it's trade management, and controlling your emotions, and not over trading. A setup with negative expectancy on unequal risk vs reward, is an edge. After that it's trade management, and controlling your emotions, and not over trading. A random outcome does not negatively impact either methodology.