ES Journal - 2019/2020

Any bears left in the building?

My weekly model suggests a 40 % chance we'll trade down to last Friday's Close (3468,75), but an 80 % chance we'll trade below 3474. However, the Week High should come in on Thursday/Friday and the odds are very high we'll close higher than we opened and in the top of the range.

My daily model suggests that a gap down today will be bearish, i.e., dropping below yesterday's Low and most likely closing net negative on the day.

Based on this and the visual picture - it's my expectation that today will possibly be another consolidation or down day before we head higher by end of week. A stronger Open than we're currently due voids that and probably sets up the buy already today.

The outlier scenario is that we'll actually drop well below 70 and see a sustained sell.

I'm currently long from 3503,50, but it seems likely I'll get stopped on that one. Will re-enter long at lower prices if so.

Good luck all!

 

My Nasdaq cycle looks the most favorable (over ES / RTY) for today again -- so far the pre-market futures action supports this.

 

I will probably go full on FOMO long if we open above 02 and holds above 02/00.

 

I really thought after september we would see more downside. but last few days PA is all bulls. next level of support is a good ways down. i could see us spending more time between here and 3370

 

Yeah. I thought so too, to be honest. It seems like this market have got everyone surprised at least once in 2020, though.

 

Two Inside Days in a row are rare. So, either 3325 + or below 3491,50.

I'm long and looking for a move above 3525. Maybe 3540.

 

The long side looks tougher today to me than yesterday, so if it just keeps going up from here probably won't have too many trades. For NQ both 12040.00 and 12000.50 is an area of interest and ES 2496.00 if we got down there would be looking for potential long.

Don't really see a clean easy short either though, so just staying flat for now.

 

Don't forget Fed's Quarles speaks @ 10:30am. You might get stopped out on both sides.

 

Intraday charts seem more bullish than bearish atm.

 

I want to take some longs, as it does look like we could move up, but just can't it doesn't meet all of my requirements and whenever I don't follow my perimeters I lose consistency and normally lose money.