ES and NQ go straight down after the RTH close. Hello, did we have short-covering in that last rally ? You bet.
NQ went down 20ish points, ES went down 4 or so, into the 15 minute break? Completely normal behavior from what I can see, considering the PA today.
Hmm, don't recall seeing Powell and Mnuchin on the calendar for Thursday, on Sunday night. Now it is. Thus, the lunacy will continue.
It seems like institutional end of quarter portfolio adjustments are going on. The weakest sectors continue to underperform and the strongest lead the way up. Momentum wise, on a swing trade basis, I’m bullish on NQ, and ES is within a whisker of bullish momentum, at least by my definition. Seeing some of the commodities sell off along with the currencies makes me think there is increasing risk aversion and gives me the idea that may we sell off after end of quarter, especially in tech. However, earnings season should be a net positive for tech, transportation, some manufacturers, and some retailers. Further, trucking rates and load availability is very strong right now so I consider that to be a confirming indicator of uncoming earnings beats. Actually, by some measures, the spot freight market is all time strong. Also notable, option volatility term structure is inverted on major indexes and on high option volume stocks, suggesting many are anticipating a short term selloff, often a contrary indicator. Been thinking of spreading ES versus NQ sometime in October, as earnings season winds down and increasing weight starts being placed on economic reports. My current plan is to continue focusing on intraday trading, while being ready take advantage of corrections in tech for some swing trades using option spreads.