Some possible scenarios/trajectories for the coming week. I'm betting on a variation of 2 or 3. If we can make one final push up to 3100/3130 or so before rolling over, 2860 might be pushing it this week. So maybe not before next week. The last few Monday's been fairly bullish. The third option is that we just keep ripping higher for a bit longer, but technically I think we're a bit overextended here. Any thoughts for the week(s) ahead?
Do you actually have data driven probabilities on all three scenarios or this just an overlying forecast of basic scenarios you think could play out from here?
No. Not on this stuff. And I'm not taking any positions here for a weekly play either. Just thinking out loud how I could see the next week(s) play out and leaning towards a sell from here starting some time this week.
To be completely honest, I don't know. As such, I've been playing a variation of strategies with both bullish and bearish positions and I remain nimble AF. Ultimately, and as most of us tend to do, I let price action tell me where to place my bets. I don't have @vanzandt magic pencil or intuition. As for predictions from a swing trade perspective, this price action is clearly pointing north. It has crept north on weak volume, shorts pile on for a good time, dips get bought again and it becomes a swing and a miss. I mean, look at @theapprentice, my man just buys it and forgets it and collects his Benjamins. There will always be intra-day/Intra-week sell-offs, and that's honestly how my bearish spreads have been making any money, but I haven't seen anything showing this uptrend is weakening. If anyone else is seeing sustained weakness, please share. It's partly why this community exists. Are we overextended? Yes, but market doesn't seem to care...yet Are fundamentals messed up? Yes, but market doesn't seem to care...yet Are technicals bullish or bearish? Depends on your time frame. There's room north and plenty of gaps below. I'm cautious in either direction. My trades: Flat at the moment, but I'm watching a wedge formation on the hourly chart and I intend to play it on strength or weakness. I'll be legging into a few option plays centered around SPY 302 and 305 today and tomorrow. In short, I have no freaking idea what I'm doing.
Don't sell yourself short. You've had some good calls in here (believe me I keep track). Also your writeups / observations are logically sound. I definitely keep tabs on your input here due to the value I've gotten from them.
think there might be another white house press conference later? Maybe give us a repeat of the huge upmove we had on Fri