Sorry, to be clear - I said 'a new low below the 21st' - i.e. we will drop below that in the sequence of tests, so a new low below 2717ish which was made on the 21st April. I made no comment on new lows below 2178, and indeed I said we should get a new high above the 16th first (i.e. the April 16th high, 2885ish). I have said before a couple of times in this journal that I dropped using 'funnymentals' from my analysis a few years ago now, I do not find it useful in my trading and instead focus solely on the chart - but that is just me, not saying it is right or wrong. I did mention before that I would guess keeping an eye on Italy/Spain/France when they start to re-open would be key, if numbers start to spike again in a couple of weeks then I can see them going back to square one re lockdown and us (UK) not getting out of it yet. This would of course also potentially coincide with the indices getting a smack and selling off.
I doubt seriously anyone thinks Magoo is someone to follow into trades. Schizo, on the other hand, is a credible trader, imo. And If I think so, I assume others do as well. Look, I'm not trying to call out schizo or anyone here. Let me state my case a s amatter of opinion, and then others reading along can select which one they'd rather hold as their opinion. Trading by price is sort of my thing, you know? I've spent a lot of time observing price action on the S&P and I believe, i.e. I am of the opinion that there is an objective and correct way to apply TA concepts and then a myriad of subjective and incorrect ways. I am not denying the old saw "there's more than one way to skin this cat." There certainly are. But we must recognize that some are better than others, e.g. some are far less messy. Here is the origin of schizo's trendline: He uses the 2/20 high, which was not the all time high, as an anchor. Why not use the next day's high? Or the 2/20-2/21 lows? It is absolutely random. Many ways to skin a cat, but this one is as likely to allow the the cat to bite you and run away, leaving you bleeding and baffled as to WTF happened as it is a cleanly skinned cat. Again, not to call anyone out, but here is the origin os Sekiyo's trendline, which is a different bar interval than schizo's, but yields a similar "result" in terms of where this line projects out into the future: Sekiyo's does have the virtue of appearing to be anchored to the all time high, but it is a hot mess after that as price just shoots like a randomly aimed laser beam into anywhere. Why that angle? What, pray tell, is the significance of any of the data points through which that laser cuts its path on its way to some randomly selected future chart point? One could simply use that high tick as a fulcrum and pivot that TL several degrees southwest or Northeast and change its future trajectory substantially, without at all being a deviation form whatever "technique" is being used her. So here is how a TL anchored to the ATH and not piercing any price action data points thereafter wold project this "trend" into the future (if it were a trend at all, which it is not). And, while this would be the correct way to use that ATH as an anchor to delimit a trend, in my opinion, it is, nonetheless, not "a trend." But, if it were, this is where that "trend" would project into the future: As you can see, it projects to a current level several hundred points above where either of the other attempts currently project. In the end, none of the three attempts are useful at this moment as a TL. If any of three current placements do prove to mark a level of resistance in the future, whether tomorrow or next year, its having done so will likewise be a completely random coincidence. Here's why: We had an all time high, a market crash low, and thus far a rally. Until we get a lower high followed by a lower low we can't say we have a down trend at all on that scale, can we? What we have is a long bull market that is currently in a trading range. The crash is the first bear leg of that trading range and we are currently in the first bull leg of that trading range. I could say so much more but I have work to do. But is it any wonder guys like @themickey - smart, level headed guys - find TA Nothing but but psychotically constructed castles in the air or fairy farts when so many examples abound of its application with no respect for the actual data it is meant to analyze? And, let's remind ourselves that using TA at best is probabilistic. It does not yield certain answers. It is the equivalent of card counting in blackjack. It can show you moments in the market where the chance of one thing happening next is at least 5% or more likely to happen (sometimes significantly more likely to happen) than it's opposite. In trading, as in any game of chance, that is the edge.
So weird... I have been taught to find the trend line in a different way. Anchor it to the high point, but the next touch is not at the high point of that pivot, but... for candlesticks... not the tails but where the bulk of the move is... the bodies. Hope that makes sense. But then you might have to adjust the line later... I just look for the best fit (where it gets the most touches). If you get overshoots, that is usable information.
I doubt I disagree with anything you are doing. I may be more granular in my taxonomy, e.g. I distinguish trend lines from supply/demand lines from channels and trend channels. As I stated, no way do I ascribe any credence to the line I drew. What we need is a lower high pivot and then we might choose to use that ATH pivot as anchor for the upper trend line of a possible triangle trading range, or, if we break to a new low, possible a trend line that will come to describe the pace and direction of an impending long term down trend. A forum is a poor medium for this. If I ever feel ambitious I'd record a video where I could narrate. I doubt you and I would differ much in practice, @Hooti. EDIT: I think the best approach is something along the lines suggested by Victor Sperandeo: Draw you trendline form the highest high to the highest high before the lowest low without allowing the trendline to pierce any intervening price action. Reverse the procedure for up trends. Also, I absolutely with you that overshoots are useful information. @speedo can vouch for the fact that part of my trading plan involves triggers for fading such overshoots.
Specifically, since 2005 Inside Weeks amount to about 9,2 % of all weeks. Turned out last week was one of those rare weeks. What really happened last week was an Inside Week closing higher than we opened following two strong weeks both closing near top of the range. As far as I can tell - this is bullish for next week in that we should take out last week's High and Close positive net. Hard to estimate next week's High from here, but would not be surprised to see 2900 or more by the end of next week. PS: Two inside weeks in a row are even more rare, but it has happened. Point is - it's highly likely we'll see range expansion either above/below last week's range, but I'm betting it's to the upside.
No access to charts at the moment but I think 2017 may have had ii weeks to open the year or soon thereafter. Memory might be mistaken, but I think I'm close. EDIT: I was not correct on that - I guess I was remembering that 2016 through 2017 was a period of many inside weeks and very small range weeks. How small? Well we had many weeks with ranges less than we've seen in minutes in this market.
Ok . 2717 is like from wed night so just a nic. Yes i agree this drama has a long way to play out with many pit falls ahead . A lot of excitement right now as things reopen . Everyone thinks things go back to normal. if that were the case we wouldn't have just spent trillions . I think were in a tight trading range for a while here. The vix fell big friday and is at its lowest level since the panic started and its giving up the ghost and swosh down is near.
Ya I knew that. Just wanted you to know that's how much I respect your work and what you share. Worth it's weight in gold.