ES Journal - 2019/2020

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 19, 2018.

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  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    VZ's always right. ;)
     
    #21751     Apr 25, 2020
  2. schizo

    schizo

    [​IMG]
     
    #21752     Apr 25, 2020
  3. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    "Write-in votes may also indicate protest voting; in the United States, Mickey Mouse has historically been a popular choice." ;)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest_vote
     
    #21753     Apr 25, 2020
    themickey and Relentless like this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    I'm gonna stick to what I know best (eg. flipping) and leave the calling business to you and others. ;)
     
    #21754     Apr 25, 2020
  5. Relentless

    Relentless

    Love me some LotR :thumbsup:
     
    #21755     Apr 25, 2020
  6. Noone123

    Noone123

    Didn't you hold shorts overnight this weekend, though?
     
    #21756     Apr 25, 2020
  7. virtusa

    virtusa

    I really hope Corona will be defeated, not only in the US but in the whole world.
    And I hope (like most people outside the US) that Trump will be defeated too.


    So basically you agree with my arguments. I based my posting on facts/arguments. I don't hate Americans at all. A second term for Trump would do no good to the US.
    Let's see if you rarely make the same mistake twice. Before the end of the year we will know.
     
    #21757     Apr 26, 2020
  8. Not really posted too many times in here but think the action this week is worth noting.

    For the first time since this up move started on the 22nd March we closed below the swing low that gave the most recent high on the 4H (to me a swing is at least two candles on the time frame in question, preferably in the opposite direction of the current swing), the only other time we got close was in early April (note the swing low I have drawn from 3rd April is a few ticks above the swing low of 29th March that we did not close below). Thinking of this in basic TA terms, the trend on the 4H was broken on the 21st as we closed below the swing low that gave the most recent high;

    ES-4H-SwingLows.png

    What does this mean? To me in my trading it is a sign of weakness, the first real sign of weakness since early April and the first time we have lost a level I would consider significant (in terms of swing lows) on the 4H. It does not mean we short at that point and expect a big dump, indeed it is usually a buy signal from the next level in the progression (I had 2724 and 2718 next, levels gained from swing low on the 13th April, 4H and 15M time frames respectively).

    We now look to be back on our way up to test the highs we lost on the 16th (2874ish, but that has been tested already if you look at the 4H). It is possible we get smacked from there to a new low below the 21st, but more likely (imo) we get a new high above the 16th and then get a more sizeable smack from the next level in the progression at a new high. It is then possible we get a bigger smack to below the 21st - this is how the market tends to set up the bigger moves (think of it as accumulation/distribution, we are simply testing levels of supply/demand to setup the bigger move - to me that is all a/d is - testing of levels before the bigger smack/pop).

    This is all part of my process of mapping out what is most likely to happen going forward and gives me a framework for decision making.
     
    #21758     Apr 26, 2020
    Builder17, _eug_ and Relentless like this.
  9. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    We elected Obama for 8 years, the Bush-man for 8 years prior to that and before that Clinton. Pretty diversified portfolio really. I mean give us some credit. And I know that you are. We'll see what happens. If he gets elected again, well, we'll go from there. Either way its up to us. We'll be fine.
     
    #21759     Apr 26, 2020
  10. hafez50

    hafez50


    At this moment unless we get a second wave of covid and closures or massive bk's everywhere hard to see new lows 24% down from here . In a real world we'd be at 1800 right now after an 11 yr bull mkt . The question is how much will the fed spend to keep stocks from collapsing? Will they come out and say they'll spend $5 trillion buying stocks? They surely did with bonds and other instruments so why not stocks?Its hard for me to believe you can have capitalism with a socialist /communist approach to your gov't saving and supporting everyone ?
     
    #21760     Apr 26, 2020
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