Its funny i've read 2 articles how analysts and people are a loss for words how the mkts at 2830 with 26 mil unemployed and things about to get really ugly ,
Tell me something since your bearish bias has been evident recently - even Friday: Do you feel as if though the market has to have a big swing down from these levels? Because it certainly sounds like it.
Exactly.... and what about all of the personal and business bankruptcies coming up ? Anyone owning commercial real estate may just as well head for the poor farm.
Define big? While I think markets are showing signs of risk-off and we may not test 2200 again soon. But I think 2400 or 2600 may be possible. At a minimum, I think we range from 2600-2950 for a while. EDIT: I really like for base to build at 2600 for sustainable push higher in Q4.
Last time I checked the markets don't give a rats ass whether anybody feels the current price action is "sustainable". This is what I'm talking about. This very mindset is a large part of the reason we are still grinding higher.
I 100% agree . Now comes all the incredible BK's hitting one after another . Think about this . Restaurants,Airlines , movie theaters . Even if every single person wants to go back to doing what they were doing before this they can't . Mandatory spacing in all the industry's means 1/2 as much business . And only 70-80% of the traffic will come back. So that means a few things. #1 they won't need to hire all the people back. #2 The co's will make much less re and profit . #3 . They'll have to renegotiate all leases . #4. i bet 10-20% of people will be allowed to keep working out of the house which means businesses won't need as much office space . Its a vicious loop about to happen over the next yr. Lets not even talk about what happens as outbreaks occur and places close of a 2nd wave in the fall.We've all got so used to everything will be better in 6 months (Thats why the its skied) but i truly believe this time its going to get bad and people will be shocked. Its an invisible enemy. But i caution this is what we face and the real world but who knows how market reacts.