Past performance isn't indicative of future one. Especially when it's about a multiplicative (exponential) process.
I’ll play ~ 2,800,000 deaths on average every year in United States 35,000 deaths from Corona right now Be really pessimistic and assume we get 200,000 deaths this year from it Now assume you don’t live in NY Now we are down to 19,000 deaths
A lot more than in 2019. _________________________________ Either way, and I am not trivializing or making a joke here... but if it is over-hyped etc.... good. But the thing you are missing is people believe it. True or not, businesses everywhere are closed. Here's the thing, these places were overextended to start with. They're f'd now. The snowball rolls on. Who's gonna rent a retail space that costs $6500/month plus taxes plus lights, plus heat, plus AC? How many haircuts does a place like Great Clips have to have per day to make that nut? Or how about some bs sandwich shop. Remember, the owners need a salary too. Commercial real estate, especially the stuff in nice areas.... its gonna have tumbleweeds in the parking lots and for lease signs in the windows aside from a few deep pocketed anchor tenants like DG or DPZ etc. So yeah, whatever on Corona, although 4000 people did die yesterday in the States... but the point is... the house of cards. Our markets. We are going lower. It won't be a crash, it'll be a ratchet down. Oooooor... you can listen to B1 and his models. He kicked ass on that 30% drop in oil.... let alone his "major bull market beginning at 3250 on the S&P. Lets not forget when he was a bear from March till November in 2019. Another banner call, as the market made an upmove that was in the top 3 of all time. Anybody besides me recall that? "I don't look at fundamentals" I mean whatever... look at fucking pig entrails for all I care... but when you're wrong you're wrong. 33% loss on oil in less than 1 week. And you yoyo's listen to this? Whaaaaaaatever.
I would go wherever the market goes, but what's the likelihood that this is a bull trap? My gut tells me there's something wrong with this picture.