Trump is no longer calling for much of the country to be reopened by May 1, instead saying he'll wait until the country is healthy. Markets not gonna like that.
I also thought the market would not like the unemployment numbers Thursday morning, yet /ES rose 100 points in less than 2 hours (8:15-10:00) when they were published. WTF? Was totally lost there. My short position hopes you're right, but having a difficult time understanding the markets reaction lately.
Agree it was oversold and indeed expected it to move up. However, what surprises me is the violence of the up move over the last 2 days. I didn't expect we would rally 300 points in a week. We're at the same level again as we were in June'19 and March'19 even though the economy is in much worse shape. I was long until 2600 and moved to short at 2700. Let's see what next week brings...
If my analysis is correct, we're likely to go down hard from here. We've finished the week exactly at the 50% Fib level and are also up against the trendline.
Turns out you are not one of those who know how to gauge peaks of pandemics. If the peak was 'well behind' in UK two weeks ago it would at least have shown in total active cases today.