Agree, xD Actually my spreadsheet tells me -> 2765 -> 2735 But the chart tells me we've checked the previous high. We ain't raised nor folded it. I just bet on a little 50% retrace. From the whole 2620 move.
Last 5 moves we've made +180 -60 pts ... I bet on a little mean reversion here. Let's reshuffle the cards a little.
I was looking at some stocks Like Unh,Hd,msft apple etc. Huge incredible runs off the bottom. Its like we just had a normal brisk pullback . Going back to lows is going to require some real long lasting negativity . This rally is much sharper and steeper than any rally i recall in 2008 . I know we never rallied 28% in 2 weeks.
Too scary for me to add on any further longs. (Currently holding+ 40 stock positions) I'm gonna just sit a tad, everything looks super bullish but I reckon it will pull back to at least 2550 on SPX. I was hoping a pullback prior to Easter but not looking like it will retrace that much now. Maybe this push is from shorts liquidating, volumes are not heavy.
Yes vol very light and they way the futures snap up or down looks so illiquid . Right now only price is bullish off the lows. Even if the economy opens all everything goes away the mkt is not pricing in reduced long term earnings( at least next 2 yrs) because of social distancing . Airlines,sporting events, movie theatres,cruise ships, restaurants. I really believe things have changed going forward. Stock buybacks will go to near zero and people will save more. The debt binge will be much less. Earnings and profit margins will revert to the mean which means P/e's should fall.