Nobody knows. Negative interest rate is currently not written in any of the Econ 101 books. Personally, we will go through a long economic drought (aka stagflation) much like the Japan of the 90s, which they have yet to recover. Hence, I believe we will NEVER see the ATH again.
I think that the market hasn't begun to factor in what it coming. If the pols do not act quickly we are three to four week from a housing/mortgage/rent crisis that will make 2007-2009 look like subdued pullback.
Stimulus check is stupid, agree. But direct deposit is better than gift card. But finally got broke ass IL to send me my tax refund for 2019, so that's nice. Grossly overpaid last year, so a far bigger chunk than inky dinky stimulus check
Well, if you want to boost the economy (after all, I'd think that's the main reason for the "stimulus" checks), the last thing you want is for people to hoard that money. So it would be better, in my opinion, to issue gift cards that must be spent within a short period of time.
A fed governor predicted 32 percent unemployment and yet the Izzy Bottom continues to hold. We would need a new surprise catalyst to drive prices lower. Right now, the bad news in factored into the market.
The "stimulus" is the corporate socialism. The direct payments to individuals is so that there will be an economy left to stimulate when we come out the other side of this. I agree with Taleb on this: corporations (and investors) who are not prepared nor properly hedged should be allowed to fail and regular direct payments to income earners should be made until the economy opens up. I'm in Pennsylvania - one of the many stay at home states. If we count folks who were working who are currently not drawing a check we are at far higher than 30% unemployment. Until two weeks ago I could look out my office window all day long while trading and not see a soul. Now I can't look out without seeing some grim looking neighbor doing their best to appear to be walking with purpose. I liked it better when folks just slept in my neighborhood but went away every day. Used to have the whole place to myself lol
Check as a delivery mechanism. That's all. Checks are extremely prone to fraudulent cashing Edit: But I understand there seems to be no other way when IRS doesn't have your direct deposit info
Did you enter long for a weekend hold, which I inadvertently did today by going long at a kinda' peak? 21105 on the MYM? Last time I did that, 8000 points above, I got burned pretty badly. Let's see what this weekend brings. After all, it is risk free zero $$$, and all the bad news is priced in! Right? If you really have that conviction, you would do it with real monies.