I predict (although I hate that word), it going up ultra short term maybe 50-100 points before another drop. During the Depression, the values were so depressed that each time (3 large bounces) they pushed it up about 10-15% before sliding. In fact, the rises were short and ephemeral and the drops afterwards were smooth. The faster something drops, the more likely people are to pounce. Recessions with no precipitous drops, have little to no dead cat bounces; or, at least very muted ones. May SPX 2200 put was around $6000/contract.
Man, what are you talking about? You were so jet-lagged long before this crisis erupted. You need to stop rolling that dope.
Oil is going to $12 - going to take more than a lying tweet to keep it from happening. May be 3 to 6 months out, but it is going to $12 or close to it.
A close friend of mine that is an expert on oil (trader for an oil company) also says 10 to 15 million barrels less is not very likely. Apparently lowering production on mature oil fields is nearly impossible and smaller producers will keep on producing to cash their hedges.
$60 to $12. 80% The "lifeblood of our economy". What's 80% of 3250? pffff.... ES 2000 is sooooo on the way.
### in 3 minutes. Regardless - for today, I'm looking at a sell on the day. May not be a dramatic day, but should close lower than yesterday for sure.
Probably going back to the 2007 highs eventually. It has seemed to me that oil was never allowed to settle back and find a natural level after the last commodity bull market. Its price has been kept artificially high to maintain the US oil industry.
Watch the volume early for a clue, the first 2 hours. If it's light, expect a strong run after 2 PM. I'm out, good trading today guys. Stay safe.
For now, the spot trucking freight market is holding up better than what may be expected. Hours of service requirements have been suspended for Corona related loads. The company I lease with is paying a $50.00 bonus to both agents and driver for each load they book. I suspect the main reason the spot freight market has not dropped significantly recently is there seems to be some driver reluctance to travel to COV-19 hot zones or even in general. The typical age of over the road drivers are in the 50s with many who smoke and are obese, strong candidates for CV related complications. Many owner operators are highly leveraged with typically marginal credit. When the spot market finally bears the full brunt of reduced freight volumes, a lot of small trucking companies will be going under, probably fairly quickly. I was going to take an extended break from trucking, but I better make hay while the getting is still relatively good.