ES Journal - 2019/2020

speedo · Apr 2, 2020

NQurious said:
Overnight a nice bear flag. Al Brook's has a phrase "spike and channel" and that is what we have here: Spike into yesterday's low with asnap back rally and then the market channels all night long.

Shorted BA yesterday and I'm holding for another try at $89. Current price 131.50. I expect the sell of to continue.

View attachment 223805

Other than price, the other data point that will likely coincide with a market bottom is an absolute collapse in consumer sentiment. And as bad as things look today, sentiment isn't that bad. I read a piece last night (I'll try to find it and post the link here if I do) that said that during that market sell off, the public bought stocks all the way down, from millennial to Gen X'ers to Boomers. That, if true, is not a bullish sign.

This is an unprecedented bear market in terms of the speed and extent of this initial decline. It is entirely possible that the whole bear ends far more quickly than most bear markets find their ultimate low. But we aren't there yet, imo.

Consider all the financial and credit market problems that are brewing as we sit here because the US government is doing what it always does: bailing out corporations, Wall Street, and the banks, while giving as small a pittance to the sheep as it can get away with and limit the protests to a bunch of hippie wannabes smoking dope and dancing topless in a park.

Rents are due, mortgages are due, and what is needed is a three month "pause" on everything. Again, I saw a stat recently that said 81 billion dollars in rents are due each month. I though that was low, but if that is at all accurate, how can the politicians possibly justify $500 Billion set aside for corporations (which is to be leveraged 8x's by the fed to 4 Trillion dollars), and not give some form of rent relief to the American worker.

We are screwed. For every guy like me for whom this whole thing is an inconvenience and an anchor around my golf game, there are 100's of families who are royally getting screwed and they don't even know it because most Americans are politically and economically illiterate.

This market hasn't begun to price in the ultimate devastation.

The only bright spot is that America will rise and prosper again. But that prosperity will be even more concentrated and poverty and struggle more widespread than it had been before the collapse.
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Good summary...

Buy1Sell2 · Apr 2, 2020

Long 2427.00 Initial stop 2309.00

trdes · Apr 2, 2020

Noone123 said:
Yup. People think it's priced in like last week. The intention is to sell slowly.
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Yup, Just a little pump overnight gets everyone looking long and than sell into the liquidity.

vanzandt · Apr 2, 2020

NQurious said:
Overnight a nice bear flag. Al Brook's has a phrase "spike and channel" and that is what we have here: Spike into yesterday's low with asnap back rally and then the market channels all night long.

Shorted BA yesterday and I'm holding for another try at $89. Current price 131.50. I expect the sell of to continue.

View attachment 223805

Other than price, the other data point that will likely coincide with a market bottom is an absolute collapse in consumer sentiment. And as bad as things look today, sentiment isn't that bad. I read a piece last night (I'll try to find it and post the link here if I do) that said that during that market sell off, the public bought stocks all the way down, from millennial to Gen X'ers to Boomers. That, if true, is not a bullish sign.

This is an unprecedented bear market in terms of the speed and extent of this initial decline. It is entirely possible that the whole bear ends far more quickly than most bear markets find their ultimate low. But we aren't there yet, imo.

Consider all the financial and credit market problems that are brewing as we sit here because the US government is doing what it always does: bailing out corporations, Wall Street, and the banks, while giving as small a pittance to the sheep as it can get away with and limit the protests to a bunch of hippie wannabes smoking dope and dancing topless in a park.

Rents are due, mortgages are due, and what is needed is a three month "pause" on everything. Again, I saw a stat recently that said 81 billion dollars in rents are due each month. I though that was low, but if that is at all accurate, how can the politicians possibly justify $500 Billion set aside for corporations (which is to be leveraged 8x's by the fed to 4 Trillion dollars), and not give some form of rent relief to the American worker.

We are screwed. For every guy like me for whom this whole thing is an inconvenience and an anchor around my golf game, there are 100's of families who are royally getting screwed and they don't even know it because most Americans are politically and economically illiterate.

This market hasn't begun to price in the ultimate devastation.

The only bright spot is that America will rise and prosper again. But that prosperity will be even more concentrated and poverty and struggle more widespread than it had been before the collapse.
More...

Thank you. You write a little bit better than I, but thats exactly what I've been saying for the last 3 weeks. Well said sir.

Now... this dancing topless in the park.... it didn't happen unless there's a link.

wave · Apr 2, 2020

2340 will be the bottom

vanzandt · Apr 2, 2020

NQurious said:
Overnight a nice bear flag. Al Brook's has a phrase "spike and channel" and that is what we have here: Spike into yesterday's low with asnap back rally and then the market channels all night long.

Shorted BA yesterday and I'm holding for another try at $89. Current price 131.50. I expect the sell of to continue.

View attachment 223805

Other than price, the other data point that will likely coincide with a market bottom is an absolute collapse in consumer sentiment. And as bad as things look today, sentiment isn't that bad. I read a piece last night (I'll try to find it and post the link here if I do) that said that during that market sell off, the public bought stocks all the way down, from millennial to Gen X'ers to Boomers. That, if true, is not a bullish sign.

This is an unprecedented bear market in terms of the speed and extent of this initial decline. It is entirely possible that the whole bear ends far more quickly than most bear markets find their ultimate low. But we aren't there yet, imo.

Consider all the financial and credit market problems that are brewing as we sit here because the US government is doing what it always does: bailing out corporations, Wall Street, and the banks, while giving as small a pittance to the sheep as it can get away with and limit the protests to a bunch of hippie wannabes smoking dope and dancing topless in a park.

Rents are due, mortgages are due, and what is needed is a three month "pause" on everything. Again, I saw a stat recently that said 81 billion dollars in rents are due each month. I though that was low, but if that is at all accurate, how can the politicians possibly justify $500 Billion set aside for corporations (which is to be leveraged 8x's by the fed to 4 Trillion dollars), and not give some form of rent relief to the American worker.

We are screwed. For every guy like me for whom this whole thing is an inconvenience and an anchor around my golf game, there are 100's of families who are royally getting screwed and they don't even know it because most Americans are politically and economically illiterate.

This market hasn't begun to price in the ultimate devastation.

The only bright spot is that America will rise and prosper again. But that prosperity will be even more concentrated and poverty and struggle more widespread than it had been before the collapse.
More...

And oh... I wish you'd pm me before you jump in and start shorting things like BA. Well, just keep it small. I'll have to ponder this now and look at the chart later. Tbh... I'd rather see you keeping your powder dry and finding a selective long position when the time is right. At this point.

Don't get all greedy NQ... I know you won't.

theapprentice · Apr 2, 2020

SS 2456

NQurious · Apr 2, 2020

vanzandt said:
I wish you'd pm me before you jump in and start shorting things like BA.
More...

I was late to the party on that one. I did long BA last week for quite a chunk of that rally.

I'm a swinger (but don't tell my wife - she won't know what you mean).

trdes · Apr 2, 2020

Another pump to sell into, wow didn't take crazy heat but more than i wanted on that push up

Laissez Faire · Apr 2, 2020

Long bias for the day as long as we hold above 2434.