Peaks in deaths necessarily come well after the peaks of outbreaks. The current Wuhan-19 peak of the outbreak is well behind us now in The UK.
Stop moved to 2492. Will sit through a test - but not a deep retrace. EDIT: Flat at B/E. No follow through on NQ.
I am not sure how you come to that conclusions since UK just had a record of new cases. For me the peak being well behind means a country is getting consistently less and less new cases each day for a week. UK is NOT there yet as far as I can see.
Forget peak of the outbreak, think economic now. This mess is unprecedented and will take longer to recover than expected. We need to adjust another Q or two downward. That will take us to low or new lows.
Than he is going to ask what measurement are you using to determine that. It seems like you guys are using different measurements, therefore if can't agree on the standard to use you won't agree no matter what.
OK, you lost me there. Are you talking about registration vs the exact time of infection? Although that statement is correct, you can only see that once the registrations go down. Otherwise you are guessing. In the same logic one could argue bottom is in and we are in a bull market again.
By definition the peak of an outbreak is the maximum number of cases and/or deaths (which you could argue have a lag) per day (not the total, which obviously keeps growing even after the peak). Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, said on March 12, prior to the lockdown, that he expected the UK to reach the peak of the pandemic in about 10 to 14 weeks. That would have meant the number of infections would not peak before the Easter break, but would hit the UK hardest in the May half-term holidays. However, on March 26, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jenny Harries said cases will rise for “two to three weeks” then fall if Brits respect the lockdown. She said: “If people have cut down their social interactions, we would start to see a change in the graph. “The peak will be pushed forward but the height will be lower and we can manage NHS hospital care safely.” This brings us to somewhere around Easter time, which is on April 12, provided everyone sticks to the rules and stays at home, but could be shifted to a later date as things play out in reality. But hey, what would they know?