ES Journal - 2019/2020

speedo · Mar 31, 2020

vanzandt said:
Back in the late 80's I read quite few books about trading, we didn't have YouTube and all that. You had to go the library or buy them.

At the time Peter Lynch was considered a guru because of his performance at Fidelity running the Magellan Fund. In a nutshell, he became who he was because of his roots, and his ability to see the world around him unlike many of his peers that had never walked in his shoes. His father died when he was a child and his mother had to work several jobs. Lynch was on the streets at a very young age. He bought and sold bikes, caddy'd, sold magazines... he knew people. He knew the streets. He got into Boston College (he was from Massachusetts), and he studied psychology and philosophy. Imagine that.

Over the years I have read dozens and dozens of books, but after over 30 years in this game, I have to say... his insights into the way markets work and stocks behave remain timeless. My brokerage accounts would be in the millions if I wasn't such a degenerate gambler, I'm not ashamed to admit that. Where the rubber meets the road, I have lost way more than I have made.

So to answer your question.... I look around me, I know people all over this country, filthy rich, dirt poor, drunks, teetotalers, druggies, bible folks, atheists.... I know em all. I listen to them all. I like to ask questions and then shut up and listen.

Times are very hard in a big portion of this country. Sure there are areas of concentrated wealth that will continue to boom, but if you take it all in and listen to people.... the vast majority of this country is on the lower side of a great divide in our wealth. Home loans are no longer easy to get, despite crazy low rates. On top of that, many Millennial's don't want to own a home. They'd rather rent.

So if you weigh all that, with whats going on in DC, our debt increasing 10% overnight(!), probably more actually.... and with more increases likely... just to keep the system alive.... and then you look back at what happened in the 70's... to me I see a very bleak horizon for at least a few years for major home-builders.

Would I short an etf? Probably not, I personally will handpick one or two individual companies (there's only about 5 really) and just watch them. And wait for earnings etc. But for those who don't play stocks in the way I do, I like to make macro calls. This was one of them.

I hope that's a better answer than just "intuition".
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Magellan was the 800 pound gorilla of mutuals.

NQurious · Mar 31, 2020

Spooz Top 2 said:
I always thought you & B were kinda tight?
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I tried to be nice as he is the host. Not much of a host, it turns out lol

Hooti · Mar 31, 2020

speedo said:
I blocked him last week and this place is immeasurably better.
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I have a LOT of people blocked. Mr. B was one of the first years ago.
ET is so much more enjoyable...

speedo · Mar 31, 2020

NQurious said:
I tried to be nice as he is the host. Not much of a host, it turns out lol
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Not even snacks and something to drink.

speedo · Mar 31, 2020

Hooti said:
I have a LOT of people blocked. Mr. B was one of the first years ago.
ET is so much more enjoyable...
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Most of the worst ones either self-destruct or find other trolling grounds.

hafez50 · Mar 31, 2020

The only dude i dislike is poppy deep. I call him poppy dick . Mkt has no edge here

Buy1Sell2 · Mar 31, 2020

Funny when people say blocked yet their postings can be read.

speedo · Mar 31, 2020

hafez50 said:
The only dude i dislike is poppy deep. I call him poppy dick . Mkt has no edge here
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He comes on strong but he knows what he's doing....and a smart cat.

vanzandt · Mar 31, 2020

NQurious said:
At some point, when B1 logs on he's going to see nothing but a list of his own self-congratulatory posts.
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Ok... that one costs you one roll of paper-towels and a thing of neosporin as I burnt my lip spraying coffee.
Hilarious.

NQurious · Mar 31, 2020

speedo said:
He comes on strong but he knows what he's doing....and a smart cat.
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He's almost as sharp as Destiero

I like @PoopyDeek ... definitely knows more than 99% of the ET crowd about his business in the market