Better watch it or you'll get blocked too. At some point, when B1 logs on he's going to see nothing but a list of his own self-congratulatory posts.
I see. I can't be bothered to even check tbh. I only really look at this thread to see the posts of maybe 2-3 certain posters. And he's not one of them lol
Back in the late 80's I read quite few books about trading, we didn't have YouTube and all that. You had to go the library or buy them. At the time Peter Lynch was considered a guru because of his performance at Fidelity running the Magellan Fund. In a nutshell, he became who he was because of his roots, and his ability to see the world around him unlike many of his peers that had never walked in his shoes. His father died when he was a child and his mother had to work several jobs. Lynch was on the streets at a very young age. He bought and sold bikes, caddy'd, sold magazines... he knew people. He knew the streets. He got into Boston College (he was from Massachusetts), and he studied psychology and philosophy. Imagine that. I can relate. Over the years I have read dozens and dozens of books, but after over 30 years in this game, I have to say... his insights into the way markets work and stocks behave remain timeless. My brokerage accounts would be in the millions if I wasn't such a degenerate gambler, I'm not ashamed to admit that. Where the rubber meets the road, I have lost way more than I have made. So to answer your question.... I look around me, I know people all over this country, filthy rich, dirt poor, drunks, teetotalers, druggies, bible folks, atheists.... I know em all. I listen to them all. I like to ask questions and then shut up and listen. Times are very hard in a big portion of this country. Sure there are areas of concentrated wealth that will continue to boom, but if you take it all in and listen to people.... the vast majority of this country is on the lower side of a great divide in our wealth. Home loans are no longer easy to get, despite crazy low rates. On top of that, many Millennial's don't want to own a home. They'd rather rent. So if you weigh all that, with whats going on in DC, our debt increasing 10% overnight(!), probably more actually.... and with more increases likely... just to keep the system alive.... and then you look back at what happened in the 70's... to me I see a very bleak horizon for at least a few years for major home-builders. Would I short an etf? Probably not, I personally will handpick one or two individual companies (there's only about 5 really) and just watch them. And wait for earnings etc. But for those who don't play stocks in the way I do, I like to make macro calls. This was one of them. I hope that's a better answer than just "intuition". But in a nutshell... intuition.