Do both I am 100% more successful with the added anticipation. Not 100% accurate but when it plays out as anticipated, I milk the cow.
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The unwinding after 2000 was quite 'messy' too. Strong rallies and bounces are part of the script even in a bear market. We have currently rallied 15,95 % off the low in S&P500. Doesn't really mean anything. Comparatively, NDX is only 12,06 % off the low, but only traded down 30,45 % versus 35,41 % on S&P500.
You should just stick with the DOM then and use no reference of past prices. In my humble opinion - a good trader should always anticipate and plan a few base scenarios and a few unlikely ones too. That way you're essentially prepared for anything that can happen and will know how to trade them all.
Seriously, who really knew 6 weeks ago that we would fall this much? Some of you believed we wouldn't fall, period. LOL