The good news is that Italy's number might be peaked. NYC is two weeks behind the curve, that is the light at the end of the tunnel that will help the market rally for a day or two.
Novartis has 50 mil doses now of Hydroxychloroquine and making 150 mil more. Google it. If they get this out and it maintains its effectiveness...
Before I say anything, I'm in agreement with you I would think with respect to this week. I have no doubt that at some time, probably sooner than later, we revisit the low. Cash $SPX did a front run of the 38.2 by 10 points. Given current range and volatility I'm going to say that that is sufficiently close to call it a complete pullback. So, does it now pullback 50% of the rally from the low or so, and then rally into the 50% of the bear mkt? That's a possibility. Also, we have had a three day pullback in the down trend with a fourth inside day. A break of the outside day's range (again, talking cash index here) will be a good tell. If a break and hold, we're at least going to retrace 50% of the rally or more (beware of front runs of the levels however). A break and reverse up, then it will at least test last week's high, and possibly higher. I stopped out of the nq short for a loss and re-sold Friday afternoon. NDX did do a full 38.2, and Wednesday and Friday ended not merely with demand withdrawal, but with sellers pressing as well (guilty). If I had to give odds, I'd say 60/40 we double bottom this week. And the next rally is the one that goes all the way HWB. But ... this is end of month/end of quarter, and the timing of the bounce was not coincidental. Could be enough gas in the tank to take this all the way HWB or even more - to the 61.8. That end of quarter gas can extend a day or two into the next month, so that is a bit of a monkey wrench. In my opinion, once the cash opens tomorrow, price action at those levels should give us an idea of what to expect. And this was all just me thinking out loud and like you, I'm not making a call.
There are globally now 684,652 cases of COVID-19 and at least 32,113 people have died, according to aggregated data from Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering's. That's about 4.7% death rate, very high. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...t-least-32113-deaths-2020-03-29?mod=home-page