ES Journal - 2019/2020

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 19, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    I typically do not trade in the AH. If I do, it's a daytrade and a very small stop is used. The times that I use a mental stop is when I have initiated a position that I will hold overnight. In other words, I use a stop on highly leveraged trades in the AH and I use a mental stop on lower and no-leveraged trades that I believe there is a multiple day impetus for. If I am awake, I will take an obvious day trade in the AH mainly due to the fact that a lot of moves happen between 1 AM and 7 AM, but typically I just drop down to the 1 and the 5 during RTH having missed the early move and try to get some of the trend.--Sleep is more important than trading. If asked, I do not recommend AH trading and as always , no more than 2 percent of Total Liquid Net Worth should be risked on any one trade/idea in my view.
     
    #1621     Feb 13, 2019
    cowf likes this.
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    I show it up 1.06% today. Green.
     
    #1622     Feb 13, 2019
  3. SPYgrain

    SPYgrain

    8:48 high was not tested afterwards..bodes well for a swing high being in place..
     
    #1623     Feb 13, 2019
  4. SPYgrain

    SPYgrain

    cash is +, futures -
     
    #1624     Feb 13, 2019
  5. cowf

    cowf

    In regards to the no-leveraged trades in the AH, position size/contract size would be reduced to lets say 1 contract to maintain comfort and less risk of account size, and once the RTH goes into action, you would bump up the leverage to 5 contracts RTH on a short time frame to capitalize from the missed AH opportunity...Genius, elementary to some, but definitely is a refresher in confidence.
     
    #1625     Feb 13, 2019
  6. SPYgrain

    SPYgrain

    odds of a high to low trend day are high now..
     
    #1626     Feb 13, 2019
  7. cowf

    cowf

    That's noise...true green would be if we get under 2675.00 and stay under...
     
    #1627     Feb 13, 2019
  8. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Just pointing it out. Its not often you see that on a day when the indexes are (were) up as much as they were.
    I took 6 points btw at 52.25

    ___________________________________________

    From August last year.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...he-vix-may-be-a-problem-for-stocks-2018-08-28

    Dana Lyons, a partner J. Lyons Fund Management Inc., thinks this divergence deserves closer scrutiny given that such disconnects have previously heralded tough times ahead for stocks.

    Lyons pointed out that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.38% closed at a record on Aug. 21 but the VIX VIX, +0.45% ended at more than 40% above its 52-week closing low of 9.14 from November.

    This has happened only three other times in the past two decades, and those were all followed by some “very inauspicious times” for equities, he said.

    As the chart below shows, similar divergences occurred from December 1999 to March 2000, April 2007 to October 2007 and December 2014 to February 2015, and short-term returns following those occurrences were quite dismal, with median returns of negative-11.3% in the following year.

    [​IMG] J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.
    “We have seen these divergences take time to play out into negative ramifications during events in the past 19 years. However, overall, this divergence has been an extremely consistent and accurate warning sign eventually for stocks over the past two decades,” he wrote on his blog.
     
    #1628     Feb 13, 2019
  9. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Ok.
     
    #1629     Feb 13, 2019
  10. SPYgrain

    SPYgrain

    I tend to be too tight with stops (hasty/quick to move to breakeven) when daytrading..
     
    #1630     Feb 13, 2019
    vanzandt likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.