10 year still in panic mode. AAPL still hovering around 300, TSLA mid-700's, NVDA 280, the list goes on and on. Even reasonable, ordinary "pullbacks" in the tech sector would hammer the QQQ/NQ/NDX. Meanwhile we've had an emergency 50 bp cut, assurances that more cuts to come. Remarkable idiocy really.
I respect your analysis, one thing that I would point out, is that during the "bear phase" whether it's very short term or more extended, the typical structure are alternating large range days. So you get a panic low into the close one day, the drift up and close on the high the next, then the fade of that day afterwards. I think the main reason why so many were sideswiped by the 2/20-2/27 massive downswing was because there were zero counter-trend moves. Even the Oct-Dec 2018 20+% correction, it was filled with them. Now, we are back into something similar to that price structure.
Yeah - you're right. I had a bearish bias this morning and thought the second leg down would go further. With the strong movement up - I did however switch to a long bias for the day. I am however still bearish long term and think more downside is due, but like you say - with large range days going there.
All this up and back is just noise as the floor at 3020 remains in place here. Large leg up still coming today.