ES Journal - 2019/2020

So, we have 3 weeks in a row, each making ATHs and closing at top of the range.

The last time this happened was at the end of January 2018 with a weekly net change of - 3,84 % the next week.

Maybe the bears will finally have their week?

Beyond that, I got a 10/11 chance of next week making new ATHs, but only a 5/11 chance of closing positive on the week. And the positive days are limited to a maximum of 0,24 % with one outlier of 2,11 %.

So, according to my basic weekly model, it's a mixed picture going into next week where odds favour at least a minor pullback and limited upside.

 

Yes, that's how I trade----ie using trailing stops.

 

Yeah, but you are trailing your position by a mile. Why not tighten up a bit especially with volatility so low ?

 

not on a longer term trade.---especially in a parabolic bull market.

 

Buy1Sell2: May you please explain how you define parabolic bull market? Thank you very much!

 

Buy1Sell2: Besides this, what other types of up move have you defined? Thank you.

 

The inverted parabola:

 

Oh, I know that one, that's November of 2018.

 

FXtrader8911: Thanks a lot. Is the following statement reasonable? A strong up move is in general parabolic.