ES Journal - 2019/2020

Today's attempt at recovery to the positive is getting that feel of, "Nice try but no cigar".

 

Slower rate of decline versus the morning. I’m not going to short this thing myself. NQ is also down less from the open than ES on a percentage basis.

 

downward pressure is building up.

 

Remarkable how it popped right as you said that!

 

A film that gets better with each passing year.

 

right now price is hitting the resistance from yesterday and over night level. i am expecting price to go down to around 65.00 or below soon if not in RTH then AH.
as always have to watch and read patterns as they form.
65.00
58.00
and 45.00 are some levels i will watch if price does make its move downwards.

 

I was in a way drawing a parallel between the two days, but the parallel was in relation to the set up over the preceding three days. You may have missed it as this thread is now bloated with more gas the decaying beached whale, but based on volatility, range, and range expansion, last Wednesday-Friday produced a set up that has been highly correlated with immanent reversals of any pullback - both bear market bottoms and bull market retracements. The last such set up was 12/21. The bottom usually happens the next day with a gap down panic sell off. Thus 12/24 and 8/5 are two instances of the same set up (12/24/2018 and 08/05/2019 for those who find figuring things out like dates and $SPX price levels too taxing).

But the degree of the downtrend over the now 16 instances I have found this set up has been irrelevant to the expectation that the market will be higher one month out. Also, little additional draw down in the index is expected ... I'll check the sheets later and run the max draw down and post it here. 14/15 have been positive returns 1 month out.

 

needs to go below 75.00, after hours is like watching paint dry.

 

Good post... technicals v. fundamentals reaching a similar conclusion, nice confirmation to my view
Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

Looking forward to seeing the max drawdown derived.

copy that, so much so that I now only visit the thread occasionally and skip anything not on topic (thus tyhe annoyance of 2 digits prices as I need to look at the time of posting to know the price referenced)

 

This one is not mine but it is interesting nonetheless. This is a list of every time in $SPX history where the cash SP-500 was down at least 2% after three consecutive days of declining 7/10ths of a percent or more.

12/24/2019
08/24/2015
03/02/2009
08/31/1998
10/19/1987
05/14/1973
05/28/1962
10/21/1957
12/14/1931
05/18/1931
09/29/1930
06/09/1930

Oh, and they were all Mondays.

Oh, I forgot to add Monday 08/05/2019