Outside day not an important factor as closing was inside yesterday's range. Furthermore, the futures chart showed open and close to be nearly the same and the massive bounce at close on a Friday signals more upside to come.
B, It represents indecision as body did not engulf the previous day.. so you`re correct there. Yesterdays PA was far from bullish.. despite a program driven rally to get us back near even at close. It`s evident that you have a little too much emotional involvement to the Long biased trade you`re sitting on. I do see what you see... with the big pic.. but the problem is this: By the time you have confirmation via PA of being wrong.. close below 2530/2570 cash.. You are nearly 400 Handles (-400 Red).. That`s never a favorable RR/ROI, regardless of size/ net worth, etc.
I’m expecting 3,000 to be crossed. Just scanned a ton of feeds, 9:1 pessimism rules “ it’s been such a long time since 2008 correction, so it must go down now! “ ... the economy is firing on all cylinders .. this pessimism is actually good for the market, means we have room to go higher.
It's worked the last 10 years because of QE and low rates. I know longs don't want to hear this but this time I believe it won't work...not saying I am right because we could go higher. That's why I would rather trade what I see instead of what I think. What I am seeing right now is a bear mkt according to daily and weekly so would rather be on that side ofbthe market.
I’m not saying your wrong, your thesis is correct, but you have to validate the monetary tightening effect on the real world. Need to look for evidence before it becomes apparent. I just think you may be too early. If you have ability to get short and stay short small unit quantity and ride it and add to it as the market meets your thesis than it’s good. But I can’t call a market top when things are going well unless you see some leveraged catalyst about to blow that will force 401ks and 529s to force liquidate.
Like mortgage rates rising, interest rates rising, home sales slowing? Or the notion that markets top on great news and robust economic data?
In ‘87 30 year yield jumped 300 basis points to trigger equities. 7.2—>10.2 We haven’t even jumped 100 basis from this years lows. Like 50 basis. In 2000 and 2008 it took 150-200 basis more from current levels to trigger shifts. In ‘87 from March of that year to October (7 months) to trigger the crash.
It might very well be that the bottom is in on this down move. Or we might be retracing a sustained down move. Regardless, I think we can expect a move at least down to 2683 some time this week. Maybe as early as tomorrow.