Experience, I guess. The technique I was seeing is typical of someone building into a position, not unwinding one. I got long after the dip down this morning and was actually expecting higher prices today but when the seller wouldn't get out of the way and kept selling size into rallies and at the highs, I thought 'uh oh'. He sold right into the close.
Weekly chart shows classic symmetrical triangle pattern. SPY Volume bar from week of Feb 5 tells me probs are we breaking out downwards. If not have my stop in place and will look to get long on pullback. We won’t need to wait very long as trianlge has reached its apex. Buckle up!
Here`s the Daily Apex buildout on ES... As you can see, the Daily has some room to move before decision time... The only thing that really concerns me on the downside break is that too many are expecting it... as a contrarian, that concerns me greatly!
I like to try & envision how a move will formulate.... That said, I`m looking for a false move North/ Wyckoff Thrust above the TL & potentially above the 2720 previous swing hi... followed by a quick move straight down to the lower TL/ Support line & a bust straight thru it. Anyone else want to take a random stab at this upcoming break PA? I would really like to hear what you guys are expecting as a whole, so don`t hold back... all for fun... until the Scarole is on the line.
I’m expecting something similar, ‘pin’ formation. Bias still negative even with this wedge formation.
Exactly what I was expecting this week into next, didn’t see the trip to the 200 materializing by makes sense in hindsight. It always does and where ladies like Lawrence lugar do their best work. A break of 2680 Monday should put us to 2720 area for fed announcement Wednesday. Same level as 3/21 Fed meeting. That 2745 high would be tempting to break as well. From there i have to go with the fed induced price action but I am plotting a course south as well.
I'll take a stab. I'm your contrary person on the bull side. Following your Wycoff terminology, I think if it heads for that TL (2720), we've jumped across the creek, and the bull is on. If not, then we consolidate for a bit longer with a spring reaccumulation in phase c, which we aren't in yet. I think it's the latter. Basically, I'm looking for it to go October 10 '98 on us, and break below 2532. It wouldn't surprise me to see 2490 (3/09 TL). I've got my knife gloves on just in case (I will look for confirmation), and I'm thinking about a mini-plunge if we get there. Eventually, we see new a.t. highs. For me, the weight of the evidence is overall bullish.