ES Journal - 2017/2018

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 23, 2016.

  1. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    Trading is a zero sum game. It is impossible to have a zero sum game... like trading ...where rules consistently work. There, now I have opened a big can of worms!
     
    #331     Jan 21, 2017
  2. algofy

    algofy

    Actually since brokers and exchanges take a cut trading is actually a negative sum game for the buyer/seller.
     
    #332     Jan 22, 2017
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  3. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    Yes, that is one reason it is so hard to learn to make money because even if one BE one is still losing. A trader is starting off a trade in the negative. In the Es a scalper has to make at least 1 point on the average trade to even make it worthwhile because of the comm...etc. But generally to make 1 point you need a 6 tick move.
     
    #333     Jan 22, 2017
  4. Gary Lynn

    Gary Lynn

    Excited about the upcoming week, should get some volatility back in the market with Trump administration.
    Intraday chart carry-over looks poised for Monday morning. One of my overused favorite patterns.

    https://www.screencast.com/t/jKLPR38Ec

    Have a good week !
     
    #334     Jan 22, 2017
  5. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    Rules can serve as guidelines but that is it. Traders think if they can just get a good set of rules up and and have the discipline to stick to them they will make money. Not so. Think about it logically for a moment. Why is it that there can be no set of rules that are consistently reliable?
     
    #335     Jan 22, 2017
  6. algofy

    algofy

    I trade my rules 100% during the market hours, I may tweak my rules after the trading day is done. This allows for flexibility as market conditions change but rigidity to not get emotional and trade in a way that I haven't tested.

    This way works well for me, your way likely works well for you so it's all good.
     
    #336     Jan 22, 2017
  7. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    Reliable rules cannot exist. If they did everyone would eventually use them and there would be no one to take the other side of a trade. This is upsetting to traders who seem to think that if they can JUST come up with a reliable set of rules then the game of trading will become profitable for them. However, all rules work some of the time and none work all the time. It is nigh impossible to know when they will work and when they won't. They usually work just enough of the time that they make us believe that with a little more tweaking they will work better. Hence we are always trying to tweak them. But there are just too many variables and unknowns in the market. And it is impossible to know all the "why's" of price movement. To every possible event that affects price movement there is a bullish and bearish interpretation. And many events are unknown and cannot be known at all and even if they were known they will never be known by all of the traders; be they retail or institutions.
     
    #337     Jan 22, 2017
  8. speedo

    speedo

    You are making arguments against your own positions. No two trade plans are exactly alike ergo no two sets of rules are exactly the same. One's set of rules simply need to work more than they don't across ALL market conditions. The variance in trade plans and respective set's of rules are what make markets.
     
    #338     Jan 22, 2017
    CBC, Buy1Sell2 and pinabetal like this.
  9. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    Now that is interesting. Now we are talking about probability which is the best anyone can hope for. Plans and rules don't necessarily make the markets. Irregardless of our plans or rules markets are always probing for value. Bulls are trying to drive it up..bears down. Effects on price movement are also connected to our human nature. For the most part only the institutions can move the markets. Generally a retail trader can't unless they are trading institutional size. Here is something interesting. Rules cannot be carved in stone and they cannot be everlasting. What once worked well may no longer work at all. Just ask the turtle traders. Or the soes raiders.
     
    #339     Jan 22, 2017
  10. pinabetal

    pinabetal

    There is a danger to rules. A BIG danger. One can fall into the trap of trading their rules and not trading the market.
     
    #340     Jan 22, 2017