Intermediate to long term tops are more likely when volatility returns and you have 20 point swings intraday consistently. Till then it's a low volatility crawl up. It will be extremely nice trading when it happens. The valuations have to be high enough it causes structural shifts, where the last buyer is sucked and the largest inventory holder seeks to monetize into other assets. Equities in essence are a second tier currency. You should see Vix rising as the market continues to go higher.
How do you guys handle the contract roll over? Yesterday was Roll over date but June contract had more volume so I traded that and everything was as usual. Today September had more so I swapped to it but my levels were no longer valid because prices are just not the same between them two. I basically got creamed today.
I always switch on the Friday as that is usually when the front month prints the higher volume. As a day trader, I don't care about the differential...just starts fresh.
Use 'merge back adjusted', for Sept ES the value should be -2.25 to Jun ES Values should be more than accurate enough for analysis on the merged contracts
Comparing the June and Sept contract you are absolutely right. My levels were off by about -2.25. Stupid rookie mistake cost me $600. Lesson learned. I am trying to figure out how to setup the roll over properly in Sierra chart now. Is there a point in time that the September contract will match the price of the June?