Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 23, 2016.
Volatility too high for me to scalp morning session, maybe in couple hours it will settle.
---01/09 Monday early afternoon Swing trade short 2267.00 Initial stop 2276.00
---01/12 Thurs late morning Price currently 2252.00 I remain short here.
Good post @pinabetal.
Most Elites will not "get it", as evidenced by the comment by @speedo. I had a similar convo elsewhere on ET, with a Topstepper. At first he praised the concept. He slept on it, and came back to question if I even traded!! My scribbling was different from yours, more pithy, but the gist, every trade is different, rules are always adjustable, the market is always right, minimize losses and/or take what the market is offering through those adjustable rules, was all there. Most people encountered on ET are just mentally stuck.
Again, good post @pinabetal.
Markets do not change because human behavior never changes. The same set of rules that applied yesterday applies today. Successful trading is about losing a little when wrong and winning more when right over the long haul.
I agree 100%, but with the following "adjustment".
The advent of the cell phone is no different than the advent of the telegraph of yore. The rise of the likes of Google and Facebook, is no different than the rise of the rails in the days of yore. Time however has changed financial products, the level of "sophistication" of said products, and the ability for the masses to participate with those financial products in a plethora of non-traditional ways. Does buy and hold work? If personal and/or life milestones are not considered, sure, why wouldn't it?
As I said in an earlier posting, the logistics have changed, the markets haven't.
Back and fill going on now in the market. ---Typical--- Nice little rally in the short swing. Let's see how long the back and fill lasts or if it morphs.
So what you saying is if the market shows a profit that is more than what "bumps" normally happen, regardless of duration of time you trade by, you should void the rules you live by and take the profit? Is that be the same of like my long term method where I might stay in a trade over five years in Commodity market as well? I trade monthlies off that, so I should negate target 100 point moves in the ES for dozen points? And what if there is no re-entry signal after that short gain then watch it tumble to 100 points, should I be all happy I broken my rules for lousy dozen points?
There are some systems by some traders who back test the hell out of their systems and are very rigid cause of the results of their work and personality, cost me way too much early on as I tried to not do the work and go for marginal profits. I think most people don't get trading and agree with you but for different reasons.
People's beliefs might change, but dig out a wheat chart from late 1890's and see if you could trade it, I bet you can, and back then they just had pencil and ruler.
No, that's not what I said at all. I said if you do not consider personal and/or life milestones, sure, buy and hold works. A person entering retirement in say, 2007, would probably disagree. As would the armies of bears over the last 8 years or so. Or maybe even you... you have methods that "work" for you, but "what if" ... what if your 100pts maxes out at 86pts? You have a timetable AND a "backtested" target, personal milestones in context, and it is that combination that is very dangerous, as opposed to adjustment of your rules, which is applicable to all buy and hold, longer term or shorter term.
I DO understand what you are saying as I been down this road so many times. Just like many a trader with say a term of "leaving too much money on the table". It is a personal approach of going with the numbers, you either believe in what you have done or you change rules. Not so much of rules changed as I added options and learned to hedge open profits expecting possible retracements but maintaining the positions. But I have been using same rules for over couple decades concerning my targets and letting the rest run in very rigid rules. I guess in a way it is Buy and hold till it is reversing time. And yes, I still have some stocks I bought in the 1980s and have kept all this time, it is not so much as Buy and Hold like days of old, it is more like I bought very cheap and keep getting the dividends.
What do you do when you have reached all your milestones? Rotten at golf, hard to go for a walk, damn geese like play, might as well trade. And yep, past year I was few points from target and ran all way back to breakeven, made 60% on the options and tomorrow another day. I been shorting the Indexes on new contract highs for awhile, it is that last trade I don't want to miss.
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