No need to worry... I have been solidly outperforming with my own voodoo methods. When I look back at your history of posts it appears you have been mostly short since 2010 or earlier. How are your methods working out for you? Look at several of my posts and see that I prefer to be constructive with my posts. I was asking to understand WHY several see negativity? I don't get it. I see SOME pockets of NEGATIVITY in the markets but SEVERAL POCKETS of positivity. It would be nice if people shared why they see negativity rather than the chicken little the sky is falling type of comments.
I am not here to argue. I asked a simple question. Frankly, I could care less WHY things happen. I just choose to see what is in front of me NOW. And I asked why people see negativity NOW. It's a simple question. At the present moment I see mostly positive signals. I am fully aware of the sell in May and go away phenomenon. If and when signals change course to be negative I will be selling. If that's tomorrow so be it I will follow. Just because MOST mid year bottoms are placed between August/sept/oct does not mean that that is what will happen THIS August/September/October. What happened the LAST TIME we had quantitive easing for 9 years??? We have no idea because it's never happened before.
If I may, I think many people are bearish simply because of the environment we are in. The interest rates should have been raised long ago, and now when they try, people are expecting the sky to fall. The latest jobs report might even perhaps make it more likely that they won't, so this might be bullish, but of course, then there is that whole other side that will think it means they can never go up and hence the economy really is bad. Add to this the fact that maybe people are mad at the market since it seems to be controlled by the central banks. Of course with Europe and Japan not doing great, and every country trying to inflate away, maybe this is a good for the US. Anyway, as much as we shouldn't use the news, I think many traders are looking at the big picture and are very confused. Reports say that the earnings are horrible, and its only because of stock buybacks that the numbers look better than they are. Most Americans are not better than they were before 2007 I think, and people work harder to make less money. Oh... and with so much automation on the horizon, jobs might also disappear. So I guess most people think that all of this should be priced into the market, and yet it clearly isn't. Since the central banks play such a pivotal role now, how much of a market is it really? Of course none of this matters though when it comes to trading, but I'm just answering since you are curious why so many are bearish.
Thank you for that. I can accept that explanation. i am well aware of what makes sense based on the fed and QE/free money. However, I am one of those voodoo technicians that looks at price and indicators (that's right I said indicators,... I know it's a bad word around here on ET). My indicators seem to suggest that the market wants to go slowly higher. Probably only slowly because only Oil, commodities, miners, industrials, materials, small caps are trending higher pretty steadily but most other sectors are not. This is what my indicators tell me NOW. I am a firm believer that price tells most everything including what people think about the news. It doesn't matter that there is bad news if the market goes higher. In fact, when the market goes higher on bad new we should listen more closely. When the market heard the jobs report of 38K last week the market reacted by going down heavily only to recoup almost all those losses throughout the day and close slightly down. It has since recouped those loses and made a close near the high of the day today (2119 for S&P) at a level higher than 2 of the 3 highest highs in the last year. I could go on and on about all the indicators showing a new uptrend forming but most here don't believe these are useful. if you would like for me to elaborate I will. In the end you are right all that really matters is that you make money. If my indicators turn negative again I will join all the chicken littles on this site. As a matter of fact my indicators told me to get out of the market in 8-21-2015. I was out of the market until 1-4-2016 when I shorted the market and FULLY expected a market crash of the S&P to go to 1730....thankfully that never happened. BUT I made 9% in January 2016. However, TODAY, RIGHT NOW,... I don't see it crashing. Thanks Gotcha
He didn't want an answer, it was simply a loaded question...Seriously, if I post a chart that could be interpreted as bearish or if you simply suggest it might be decent to write some calls, these guys come out of the woodwork...Happened all the time on the other thread
I think we doing a failed breakout sometime in the summer, could be now, soon or later, but that's what I think. I also think one shouldnt act just upon what one thinks, but with price action backing your thoughts does wonders and we haven't seen anything of that nature YET
Believe what you want. It was NOT a loaded question. I read several pages of this thread and saw bearish overtones and could not understand why. Everyone talks bearish with no backing as to why they think that. Gotcha was the only one to answer that. Saying I don't know was not what irritated me it was WAVE saying we're going to crash, again with no explanation. If you aren't sure and are not in the market long or short I accept that,.. Sometimes it's best to sit out. But to say we are going to crash is an opinion that denotes very strong thoughts of doom and gloom. I would hope people don't just come to those conclusions based off nothing. Maybe WAVE uses Elliot Wave theory. But again he didn't answer the simple question WHY he felt that way. I was just trying to understand another point of view and potentially learn something.