Exactly. The why is generally not important. I think peoples theories of why this and why that gets in the way of understanding the what or the 'Is' as one prominent member of this board once called it.
The verifiable why is always important! Try shorting the Russell when the home sales are strong or try shorting the ES when oil catches a bid. Probabilities increase when the verifiable support the technical signals.
I don't know about the home sales, but certainly oil and index futures have decoupled on many occassions. The same with correlation between even NQ and ES. So, if something works only once in a while - what's the use?
One signal is never a sure thing for an entry. Being on the right side of momentum is. You just have to know how to read it. Trading what you see is difficult for many.
Here is an idea to stimulate weekend commentary. Just like stops were hunted outside the channel in the "blue area", the same could be said about the "red area". Definitely time will tell but with bearish seasonality not far away (typically past these earnings) and the fact that SP500 already took the 2015 lows plus the chances of an outside yearly bar being extremely rare, the red area is certainly, appealing. This parabolic move up looks structural.
If the day low holds now, I think the remainder of this session will be a slow leg up into the close with a high around 77 or so.